The Indiana Pacers host the Golden State Warriors in NBA action on Wednesday night.
Both teams are sitting at .500 and oddsmakers are expecting a close matchup despite Golden State's reputation as the defending NBA champions. NBA odds opened with the Pacers as 1-point chalk at home but have since jumped the fence to favor the Dubs at -1.5 with the Over/Under installed at a massive 238.
Read my best NBA picks and predictions for Warriors vs. Pacers below.
Warriors vs Pacers best odds
Warriors vs Pacers picks and predictions
The Golden State Warriors entered this season with the second-best odds to win the NBA title while the Indiana Pacers were at the bottom of the futures board, but don't let that affect your handicapping in this one.
Based on what these teams have actually shown this season, there isn't much separating them with both sides playing at a fast pace and filling up the hoop on offense but struggling on the defensive end of the floor.
The Warriors have been awful on the road all year, going just 2-12 SU and 3-11 ATS. They've also lost three of their last four games since losing second-leading scorer Andrew Wiggins to an abductor strain.
Their first game without Wiggins actually came at home against the Pacers last week and they ended up losing 112-104 as double-digit faves. Now they're playing on the tail-end of a back-to-back against a Pacers team that is 8-6 at home with an average scoring margin of +2.9.
With Golden State having an average scoring margin of just -8.6 in away contests, I'm taking Indiana on the moneyline.
I'm also taking Over 29.5 on Tyrese Haliburton's points + assists total. Indiana's breakout guard is coming off his worst performance of the season going 0-9 from the field and passing for just six assists against the Heat.
That said, he had surpassed that number in 13 of his previous 20 games. Haliburton missed last week's contest against the Warriors due to a sore groin but he should bounce back tonight against a Golden State squad that plays at a fast pace and doesn't defend well.
My best bets: Pacers moneyline (+100 at Betway)
Tyrese Haliburton Over 29.5 points + assists (-109)
Looking to do some NBA betting? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users at FanDuel can get a no-sweat first bet of up to $1,000! Sign Up Now
B) New users at DraftKings can bet $5 and get $150 in free bets! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2022.
Warriors vs Pacers spread analysis
The Warriors are 1-3 SU in their last four games and are fresh off a 17-point road loss to the Bucks last night. The absence of Wiggins is huge for the Dubs, who have come to rely on the former first-overall pick for both his reliable scoring and his solid defense on the wing.
Stephen Curry is still one of the best scorers in the world (averaging 29.6 ppg on 50/43/91 shooting splits) but Golden State has been far too reliant on him with Klay Thompson and Jordan Poole tending to run hot and cold.
Despite shooting extremely well from the outside, Golden State's poor offensive rebounding and high turnover rate have resulted in the team ranking a modest 11th in the NBA in offensive rating. The Dubs have been even worse on the other end of the floor, where they rank 20th in defensive rating.
The Pacers have also struggled lately going just 2-6 SU and ATS in their previous eight games. In their most recent contest, they lost 87-82 to the Heat with Haliburton dropping that uncharacteristically ugly stat line.
Haliburton has been Indiana's best player and he orchestrates an offense that has three other players averaging more than 17 ppg in Buddy Hield (17.7 ppg), Myles Turner (17.5 ppg), and rookie sixth man Bennedict Mathurin (17.6 ppg).
The Pacers are 16th in the league in offensive rating while ranking 21st in defensive rating.
Warriors vs Pacers Over/Under analysis
The Pacers are coming off a game against the Heat which saw just 169 total points scored but there's a reason this O/U hit the board at an already sky-high 235.5 before ticking up to 238.5.
Both of these teams play at a blazing-fast tempo with the Pacers second in the league in average length of possession after a made shot and the Warriors fourth in that category. And there should be plenty of made shots in this contest with the Warriors fourth in the league with 117.4 ppg and the Pacers averaging 116.7 ppg at home.
Indiana also ranks 23rd in the league in scoring defense (115.6 ppg) while the Warriors are even worse with 116.5 ppg allowed.
Warriors vs Pacers betting trend to know
The Warriors are just 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings between these teams. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Pacers.
Warriors vs Pacers game info
| Location: | Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date: | Wednesday, December 14, 2022 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC Sports Bay Area, Bally Sports Indiana |
