The Warriors are crossing the border to face off against the Toronto Raptors — but will be doing so without much of the core that has helped them get off to a league-best 24-5 start to the season.
Playing the second night of a back-to-back and their fifth road game in eight nights, Golden State is resting Steph Curry, Draymond Green, Otto Porter Jr., and Andre Iguodala. In addition, they'll be without Jordan Poole, who is stuck in health and safety protocols as well as Andrew Wiggins due to knee soreness. Meanwhile, the Raptors will be well-rested, having not played since Tuesday night's OT thriller against Brooklyn.
Can the Raptors take advantage of a limited Warriors squad on the tail end of a road trip? Find out in our NBA betting picks and predictions for Warriors vs. Raptors.
Warriors vs Raptors odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
With all of the names on the injury report, the line opened with the Raptors as 9-point favorites, and has come down to -8.5 in some places. The total opened at 208 but has been bet all the way down to 203 after heavy action on the Under.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Warriors vs Raptors predictions
Predictions made on 12/18/2021 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Warriors vs Raptors game info
• Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
• Date: Saturday, December 18, 2021
• Tip-off: 8:30 p.m. ET
• TV: TSN3, NBCS-BA
Warriors vs Raptors betting preview
Injuries
Warriors: Steph Curry G (Out), Andrew Wiggins F (Out), Draymond Green F (Out), Jordan Poole G (Out), Otto Porter Jr. F (Out), Andre Iguodala G (Out), James Wiseman C (Out), Klay Thompson G (Out).
Raptors: O.G. Anunoby F (Out), Khem Birch C (Out), Goran Dragic G (Out), Precious Achiuwa F (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Raptors are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Raptors.
Warriors vs Raptors picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
We know how great the Warriors are. They've rolled out to a league-best 24-5 record, are by far the best defensive team in basketball, and are Top 5 in offensive rating as well. But that's just not the team we're going to see tonight with so many missing players, which includes MVP favorite Steph Curry.
In the one game the Warriors have played this year without Steph, they just hung on against the league-worst Detroit Pistons (who have lost 12 straight since), but in that game, they got 59 points from Jordan Poole and Andrew Wiggins, who have both been ruled out for tonight's game.
The Raptors have been up-and-down this year, but are probably a little better than their 13-15 record suggests (11th in the East right now). Toronto is in the top half in both offensive and defensive rating, rarely turns the ball over (fifth in turnover percentage), and leads the league offensive rebounding percentage (32.3%).
With such a limited roster, it's hard to see where the Warriors will get offense from. On top of that, they're playing on the second night of a back-to-back in the final game of a five-game road trip — and doing so against a well-rested Raptors squad that hasn't played since Tuesday. If nothing else, we can expect Golden State's effort to fizzle out as the game goes on and the Raps to pull away late as a result.
Nine points may be a lot to ask from this Raptors team, but this is a very specific spot against a very limited team that I think they can take advantage of. I'm leaning on the Raptors at home.
Prediction: Raptors -8.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
The total in this game opened at 208 but has come all the way down to 203, which would be the lowest total in any Raptors game and the second-lowest total for any Warriors game this season — but not without good reason.
The Raptors' defense has been much improved as of late (seventh in defensive rating since Dec. 1), and are one of the NBA's slowest teams (22nd in pace). On top of that, four of the Raps' last seven games failed to reach the 200 point mark.
On the flip side, three of the Warriors' last four games didn't get to 203, and when you compound that with the complete lack of offensive options they'll have tonight, it's hard to imagine a world where they reach 100 points tonight.
Back the Under tonight.
Prediction: Under 203 (-110)
Best bet
Steph Curry, Andrew Wiggins, Jordan Poole, Draymond Green, and Otto Porter Jr. combine for nearly 80 points per game. When you take that away, you're left with Damion Lee, Nemanja Bjelica, and Kevon Looney. Need I say much more.
Betting Unders are never fun, especially when the number is this low, but this is the right play tonight.
Pick: Under 203 (-110)
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