Warriors vs Spurs Picks and Predictions: Golden State Starts Hot at the Alamodome

Steph Curry’s return from injury did not go as planned, as the Golden State Warriors were spanked by a Phoenix Suns team that was missing basically its entire starting lineup. Now, Curry and the reigning champs will try to keep knocking off the rust when he and the Dubs visit the San Antonio Spurs.

While the Warriors haven’t played to the level we have come to expect this season, with Curry back in the starting lineup they can certainly still be dangerous and that’s why they are an 8.5-point chalk in this matchup against the Spurs. Well, that and the fact the Spurs are just not a good basketball team.

San Antonio comes into this one losers of six of its last seven, so does that make them an easy fade? I break down this Western Conference matchup and bring you my best bet in NBA picks and predictions for the Warriors vs. Spurs.

Warriors vs Spurs best odds

Warriors vs Spurs picks and predictions

Even before Stephen Curry’s shoulder injury which cost him 11 games, the Warriors were not looking like the team that won last season’s NBA title. There appeared to be a clear split between the veterans and the young guys, which has resulted in some inconsistent results. Hence ranking 21st in net rating and sitting at 20-21. The loss against the Suns was a great example of that. 

Luckily, those vets are good enough to have their way with a Spurs team that seems to be more focused on lottery balls than the balls on the court. 

Here are just some categories in which the Spurs rank dead last in the NBA: Opponent effective field goal percentage, opponent 3-point shooting percentage, and scoring defense, as the Spurs surrender 121 points per game.

San Antonio had its hands full with the Warriors when they last met. The Dubs trounced the Spurs 132-95 as 9-point home favorites. The Dubs came flying out of the gate in that game, jumping out to a 61-45 lead at halftime.

I wrote up why I like Steph Curry to have a good night shooting the basketball in my player prop article, and I think he and his fellow starters can help the Warriors to get out to another strong start in this one. 

Here’s one more category where the Spurs rank dead last: First-half scoring margin, at -5.3. With that and the Warriors' inconsistent play in mind, I’m taking the Dubs to keep their focus early and cover the first-half spread.

My best bet: Warriors -4.5 first-half spread (-110 at bet365)

Warriors vs Spurs spread analysis

The Warriors opened this Western Conference matchup as 8-point road favorites and have been bet up to 8.5 as of Friday afternoon. Since I like the Dubs to come out strong in this matchup, I would lean toward them on the full-game spread as well. That inconsistent play, and the fact they are on the road, give me a little hesitation.

The Warriors' road woes have been well-documented this season. Golden State is just 3-16 on the road this season and the team is an uninspiring 4-15 against the spread in those games. 

Unfortunately, while the Spurs have been a good bet recently, they might just not be the team to take advantage of that. The Spurs’ defense is bad, but the offense isn’t much better. San Antonio ranks 27th in offensive rating and 20th in effective field goal percentage.

Those disadvantages and the fact the Warriors should respond after a poor performance last time out means laying the points with the favorite looks like the better option in this one.

Warriors vs Spurs Over/Under analysis

The total for this game is big. Really big. It hit the board at a whopping 240 and that hasn’t stopped early bettors, who have driven this number up to 243.5. Even though I expect a turnaround game for the Warriors here, this number is just too high. It is the highest total for either team this season.

Yes, this game features arguably the worst defensive team in the NBA in the Spurs, and another that ranks in the bottom third of the league in defensive rating. But one offense is bad, and the other doesn’t play as well on the road.

The Spurs put up 113 points per game at home this season. That ranks 25th in the NBA. While the Warriors average 113.7 points per game on the road. 

On top of that, this game is being played at the Alamo Dome in San Antonio. The Alamo Dome is of course a football stadium, which means shooting sightlines for the players will be all wonky in this matchup. This is something that pops up a lot in the Final Four and can result in more missed shots.

This number is so high, I’d lean toward the Under here out of principle alone.

Warriors vs Spurs betting trend to know

The Warriors are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight-up loss of more than 10 points. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Spurs.

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