Warriors vs Suns Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Total in PHX Set Too High

When teams led by NBA MVP odds mainstays Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant are ranked 11th and eighth in the conference respectively through 22 games, that’s a good sign that the Western Conference is a bloodbath again this year.

The Golden State Warriors and Phoenix Suns were among those teams shortlisted with chances to win the Conference this season, but both are struggling through this part of the schedule.

The Warriors have suffered a series of heartbreaking losses, while Phoenix has lost numerous key games against fellow West contenders. Both will see their matchup on Tuesday, December 12 as a chance to get back on track, and NBA odds like PHX's chances to do so.

My free NBA picks for the Warriors vs. Suns will focus on a total too high rather than picking a side.

Warriors vs Suns odds

Warriors vs Suns predictions

The total for Tuesday’s matchup between the Golden State Warriors and the Phoenix Suns has come in as high as 234.5, one of the higher marks (non-Indiana Pacers division) you’ll see this year. I don’t think that number passes the smell test.

The Suns have one of the lowest paces in the NBA while the Warriors are merely average, and neither team shoots the leather off the ball despite what their reputations might lead you to believe. 

The Suns are just 15th in effective field goal percentage and Golden State (despite Steph’s incandescent play) is 22nd. While the Warriors are good at creating possessions with offensive rebounding, their abysmal turnover rate undoes most of their good work.

These teams are also highly familiar with one another. If Kevin Durant (who is questionable) plays, Draymond Green has the right amount of tenacity and physicality to frustrate him while Josh Okogie does as good a job on Stephen Curry as almost anyone in the NBA.

It’s also gone under the radar, but the Suns offense has quietly gone in the tank over the last two weeks. In that span, they have the sixth-worst offense in the NBA per Cleaning the Glass. Their defense has remained good to great — certainly better than preseason expectations — and their lineup of mostly perimeter players is well-suited to dealing with the Warriors' pet plays.

It’s hard to know what to expect from Bradley Beal, who is on track to play his first game since November 12. Beal is a lights-out scorer but has been dogged by back injuries and has almost zero experience playing alongside this group of players.

The Suns are also a thin team, so absences by Grayson Allen and Nassir Little are quite impactful to their ability to score. Allen is shooting 46.8% from three on just shy of five attempts per game, and unlike some of the other role players, opposing teams have to guard him. Eric Gordon is their next best shooter outside the Big Three, but after that things get a bit dicey.

When Okogie or other similarly limited players catch the ball outside the arc, Golden State can and will aggressively ignore them to crowd the paint. I’m also expecting some growing pains as Beal is integrated into the offense, particularly if this does end up being the first game where KD, Beal, and Devin Booker all finally play together.

So why is this total so high when the Suns have been scoring so poorly? They haven’t played in a game that’s eclipsed 230 since the last time they played the Dubs on November 22, but the scoring in that game was propped up by a historic free throw shooting spree.

Phoenix went 44 of 52 from the line, by far the most any team has made in a game this season. Without that crutch, the game easily goes Under this mark. I believe if not for that anomaly this game would be priced quite differently, and that’s why I think the best bet on the board is the Under at 233.5

My best bet: Under 234.5 (-106 at Pinnacle)

Warriors vs Suns same-game parlay

Under 232.5

Klay Thompson Under 3.5 threes

Devin Booker Under 28.5 points

No-sweat promo available

+360 at DraftKings

Klay Thompson has been scoring better lately, but the shooting remains as inconsistent as it has all season. He’s shooting just 31.8% from downtown over his last three games, and he’s wearing his struggles on his face.

The Suns are also one of the better teams in the NBA at defending the perimeter, allowing fewer opponent 3-point attempts than all but three other teams in the NBA — a hallmark of a strong outside defense.

The Booker Under rests on a combination of his recent production and the potential he may defer some of his scoring to facilitate a smooth return for Beal. Booker is scoring 26.2 points per game over his last 10 and has only scored 29 or more twice in that time.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Warriors vs Suns spread and Over/Under analysis

Tuesday’s line opened at -2.5 in favor of Phoenix and is now available between -3 and -3.5.

Beal’s return to action couldn’t have come any sooner for Phoenix. The Suns have been on a skid nearly as bad as the Warriors, losing four of their last five, with the lone win coming at home against the Grizzlies. They also have a -5.3-spread differential in that time per Cleaning the Glass.

The Warriors have had a series of disastrous losses featuring blown leads to the Kings and Los Angeles Clippers, and a 29-turnover catastrophe to the Oklahoma City Thunder. For a veteran team that is as decorated as they come, I can hardly imagine trusting a team less down the stretch right now.

The total has seen a slight bump from 232.5 to 234.5 at most sportsbooks. 

With equal rest, the Over is just 7-6 over Phoenix’s last 13 however, and totals are going Under by an average of 2.2 points.

The Warriors are completely average on both ends, the result of a perfect balancing act between Curry’s brilliant play and the disastrous attempts at offense that occur when he sits.

Warriors vs Suns betting trend to know

The total is going Under by 2.2 points per game on average in Phoenix’s last 13 games played with equal rest. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Suns.

Warriors vs Suns game info

Warriors vs Suns latest injuries

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic