Warriors vs Trail Blazers Picks and Predictions: Wednesday's Warriors Full of Woe

The Golden State Warriors have struggled mightily on the road this season, and are in a troublesome spot on Wednesday against the Portland Trail Blazers.

Golden State passed its first of many tests without Stephen Curry this month, but Wednesday presents a difficult task. The Warriors will need to find a way to win on the road — something they’ve struggled to do all season — and they’ll need to do it against one of the hottest offenses in the NBA.

How does the absence of Curry impact this one? Let’s break it down and make some NBA picks and predictions for Warriors vs. Trail Blazers on Wednesday, February 8.

Warriors vs Trail Blazers best odds

Warriors vs Trail Blazers picks and predictions

The Warriors welcomed a very strong Oklahoma City team to the Bay Area on Monday night and absolutely tore it apart. The Thunder entered the game with one of the best defensive ratings in the NBA in their last 10 games, only for Golden State to post an offensive rating of 135.6.

Why was this significant? Not only is the Thunder defense quite good, but the Warriors were playing without Stephen Curry for the first time since his injury. There was no negative impact whatsoever on the team, as Jordan Poole filled the void perfectly on offense, and Klay Thompson had 42 points.

But Thompson is not going to hit 12 threes every night, and we know Poole to be something of an inconsistent player himself. The Warriors’ bench is 27th in net rating this year, and I’m not sure we can trust them to keep the team afloat in the wake of Curry’s injury.

The Warriors are just 7-20 straight-up on the road this year, and 2-12 as road underdogs. They will come up against a Trail Blazers team which has shown some signs of life lately, with five wins in their last eight overall. Portland is playing without Jusuf Nurkic right now, but the Warriors have never been strong on the interior.

The Trail Blazers may have lost some of the betting public after a tough game in Milwaukee, but I didn’t think they played too poorly — their shots just didn’t fall. I think this is where they rebound. 

Portland ranks second in offensive efficiency over their last two games, and while they’ve had their issues defensively, I think Golden State should cool down here given what we’ve laid out about the unsustainable nature of their offense without Curry.

My best bet: Trail Blazers moneyline (-135 at DraftKings)

Warriors vs Trail Blazers spread analysis

The Warriors are just 8-18 against the spread on the road which — while slightly better than their win-loss record away from home — still isn’t very good. They’re a slightly-better 5-9 ATS as the road underdog.

What I really want to talk about here is their performance without Curry. They were just 7-8 ATS this season without him entering that blowout win over the Thunder, meaning they’re now .500 in 16 games without him.

Despite these figures, the line here opened at 4.5 points, and has moved down to 2.5. DraftKings is reporting that 57% of the bets and 57% of the money is on the Warriors to cover, perhaps in a nod to the two recent games these sides have played.

Golden State simply isn’t the same team on the road with a net rating of -6.2, juxtaposed with a +6.8 net rating at home. Their offense has been able to keep pace, but their defense has cratered, losing nine points per 100 possessions. Against a lethal offense, that’s going to be difficult.

I’d likely lay up to three points to back Damian Lillard & Co. in what I see as a great spot. 

Warriors vs Trail Blazers Over/Under analysis

The Over is now 7-5 in the last 12 games in which Golden State has played without Curry, which would give you reason to believe that trend keeps on going.

We also mentioned that while the Warriors lose nine points per 100 possessions on defense on the road, they’ve managed a solid 111.7 offensive rating in these games, which isn’t too far off their mark at Chase Center. 

While this all sounds good, we should remember that the Warriors play at a pace of 105.4 with Curry — which is ridiculously high — and a rating of only 102.5 in the minutes without him.

If you can’t tell, I’m just a bit confused as it pertains to this total. In theory, the Warriors’ offense should really look worse for wear, but we can’t forget that the Trail Blazers have a 123.4 defensive rating over the last 10 games, which is the second-worst mark in the NBA.

I’d definitely lean towards taking the Over considering the Trail Blazers have an excellent offense and absolutely no defense. The Warriors have been relatively fine on offense without Curry, despite the clear lack in production.

Warriors vs Trail Blazers betting trend to know

The Trail Blazers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight-up loss of more than 10 points. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Trail Blazers.

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