The 2024 NBA season is here, and while everyone gets ready to lay down on some game action in their NBA picks, I have five NBA win total predictions surely to turn a profit this season.
Which teams will surprise and go over their win total, and which are possibly a little too overhyped? Read onward to find out!
2024-25 NBA win total predictions
- Milwaukee Bucks Over 49.5 (+110 at Caesars)
- Memphis Grizzlies Over 46.5 (-108 at FanDuel)
- Miami Heat Under 44.5 (-115 at Caesars)
- Minnesota Timberwolves Under 52.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
- Indiana Pacers Over 46.5 (-108 at FanDuel)
Milwaukee Bucks Over 49.5 wins (+110 at Caesars)
The Milwaukee Bucks underperformed last year and now get a low win total because of it — despite their clear upside — giving us the perfect opportunity to bet the Over.
When teams make big moves, such as a blockbuster trade or a coaching change, it rarely pays off right away. Milwaukee had both last year. Doc Rivers will have a clearer vision for this team, and Damian Lillard is more accustomed to his new squad.
Then you have Giannis Antetokounmpo, who simply remains one of the best players on the planet and is an MVP contender year in and year out.
The Bucks play in one of the weaker divisions in the league, and 50 wins should be this team's floor, not the ceiling.
Memphis Grizzlies Over 46.5 wins (-108 at FanDuel)
It was just two years ago the Memphis Grizzlies won 56 games, and they've since floundered due to the well-known off-the-court struggles and injuries of Ja Morant, as well as budding star Desmond Bane.
Morant returned shortly last year in mid-December and the Grizzlies went 6-3 before he suffered a season-ending injury, before both Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson also sustained debilitating injuries.
This is a team chock full of depth between former Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart, Rookie of the Year frontrunner Zach Edey, and even the emerging Santi Aldama, who should be able to demonstrate his abilities as a stretch big while JJJ deals with an early-season injury.
This team at full health is as deep and talented as any, and this may be the year they finally get to show it again.
Miami Heat Under 44.5 wins (-115 at Caesars)
After winning 46 games last year, the Miami Heat (for the umpteenth time in a row) did nearly nothing in the offseason to improve their roster.
They made a trade to acquire Terry Rozier at last year's deadline, but he only amplifies their extensive defensive struggles that result from the play from anyone not named Bam Adebayo or Jimmy Butler.
As a whole, this team is extremely uninspiring, and the only development is they're an additional year older.
Miami also plays in a quietly stronger division between the emerging Orlando Magic and the now-healthy Charlotte Hornets, who should surprise some this year.
Minnesota Timberwolves Under 52.5 wins (-115 at DraftKings)
The best teams to take the Under on are teams that surprise the league with either an unexpectedly high win number the previous season or an exciting playoff run.
The Minnesota Timberwolves fit the bill of both after posting 56 wins and making a run to the Western Conference Finals.
They also have the challenge of changing their entire offensive and defensive approach after shipping off Karl-Anthony Towns in exchange for the likes of Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo.
Indiana Pacers Over 46.5 wins (-108 at FanDuel)
The Indiana Pacers surprised many last year between an appearance in the In-Game Tournament finals and a 47-win season.
It came on the back of near-MVP play from Tyrese Haliburton in the first third of the season and then the acquisition of Pascal Siakam to help round out the starting lineup.
But Haliburton sustained a hamstring strain in January he attempted to play through for the rest of the season, and it severely hampered his scoring ability, given his reliance on his first step and perimeter shooting.
There is simply a lot of upside to like with the Pacers: Haliburton is now healthy, Siakam is further acclimated, and Bennedict Mathurin returns from a season-long injury.
On top of that, Indiana saw some very important development from key role players like Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Obi Toppin, and Ben Sheppard.
Don't be surprised to see this team near the top of the East this season and possibly making a respectable run in the playoffs.
