Well, the Washington Wizards sure showed us.
In a convincing argument for the viability of the NBA's play-in tournament, the Wiz – who appeared to be drawing dead earlier in the season – reeled off wins in 15 of their last 20 regular-season games before destroying Indiana 142-115 to clinch the East's eighth seed.
But now, they face steep NBA betting odds against the titans of their conference: the Philadelphia 76ers, who have held down the top seed for most of the season.
Can Washington keep things close against a big spread? Find out with our Wizards vs. 76ers picks and predictions for Game 1, Sunday, May 23.
Wizards vs 76ers game info
• Location: Wells Fargo Arena, Philadelphia, PA
• Date: Sunday, May 23, 2021
• Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
• TV: TNT
Wizards vs 76ers odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
NBA Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonFanDuel opened Philadelphia a 6.5-point favorite Thursday night, stretched to -8 by Friday night, slipped to -7.5 Saturday, then went back to -8 this morning. As of 11 a.m. ET, the Wizards are taking 57 percent of spread tickets, while the 76ers are drawing 67 percent of spread money. The total dipped from 229.5 to 227, then rebounded to 228, with 65 percent of tickets/73 percent of money on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameWizards vs 76ers series odds
Wizards: +550
76ers: -800
Wizards vs 76ers betting preview
Injuries
Wizards: Deni Avdija SF (Out), Thomas Bryant C (Out).
76ers: No injuries to report.
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Sixers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a home favorite. Find more NBA betting trends for Wizards vs. 76ers.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The Wizards are hot, no two ways about it. At a glance, they looked like one of the NBA's best teams down the stretch of the regular season. But upon further examination, their run wasn't exactly the toughest test. 14 of Washington's last 20 games were against lottery teams, while they beat the Jazz without Mike Conley and the Lakers without LeBron James. Not strong prep for their playoff opposition.
In the Sixers, the Wiz run into a nightmare matchup that is every bit worth backing against Game 1's -7.5 spread.
It all starts with MVP finalist Joel Embiid, who is going to destroy Washington's "center-by-committee" approach. A still-spry Robin Lopez is probably their best attempt to cover Embiid, but Daniel Gafford is too small and Alex Len too useless when Lopez inevitably winds up in foul trouble. Furthermore, Embiid is an apex deterrent at the other end, protecting the key against a Wiz squad that loves to penetrate and ranks fifth in paint points per game. Hope you like Russell Westbrook jumpers.
Speaking of Westbrook, Ben Simmons is possibly the best option in the league right now to smother whichever of Russ or Bradley Beal is giving Philly more trouble. Simmons can shift coverage seamlessly and is equally lethal closing out on a shooter (Beal) or walling off a slasher (Westbrook). He's a DPOY finalist for a reason. If both Washington stars become problems, Philly can summon elite bench stopper Matisse Thybulle to stop the bleeding.
The Wizards excel in chaos, deriving their edge by capitalizing on sloppy teams and forcing them into a faster-paced game than they'd like to play. In Philly, they find an opponent who has legs, but can also control the tempo (a modest 12th in pace) and dump the Ball into Embiid on the block any time the game needs to become more deliberate, milking the clock and eliminating long leak-out rebounds off missed jumpers.
Overall, the Sixers are more talented, deeper, way better defensively (2nd in D-rating vs. Washington's 17th), more experienced, better-coached, and will negate several of the Wizards' advantages.
If you need icing on this cake, the Sixers were the NBA's second-best SU team at home this season (29-7), while tying for the fifth-best ATS home mark (22-13-1). Fire away.
PREDICTION: Philadelphia -7.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
This is a really low total for a Wizards game. They've only faced a total Under 230 three times in their past 22 games, all of which were against either Cleveland or Detroit, who owned the NBA's 28th and 26th-rated offenses.
While it may seem counter-intuitive to most of our logic above, banking on this game to fall below that total suggests a total ineptitude offensively on Philly's part, and we're giving them more credit than that.
As mentioned, Embiid will be a beast. There's little to nothing Washington can do to prevent him from scoring at will (save fouling, which will just put points on the board while stopping the clock). Tobias Harris is a dangerous second option, and Simmons will be able to carve up a relatively weak Wizards defense to get open looks for Danny Green and Seth Curry.
And while the Sixers will doubtlessly throw a few wrenches in Washington's gameplan, this is a squad that's averaged a fairly stupid 126.7 ppg over its last 14 games. Unless the Wizards completely turtle like they did against Boston, this won't be a low-scoring contest. Even if Philly notches a comfortable win in the 120-110 range, we still win this bet. So we're taking it.
PREDICTION: Over 228.5 (-110)
Player prop pick
You might have expected an Embiid prop here, and while we fully expect him to mangle Washington's front line, the books seem to have hedged against bettors piling on the Over by setting his points and rebounds markets well above his season averages. Even against a crappy interior in a faster-paced game, we think there's better value.
Embiid is likely to be double-teamed on most touches and will without question be the focal point of Washington's defense. But their roster is fairly ADD defensively, and shouldn't be counted on to be air-tight with help and rotations.
This should play out greatly to the advantage of Simmons, a Swiss Army Knife who can exploit Washington in a number of ways if it sends help at Embiid, whether knifing to the bucket for points, crashing the boards, or punishing the helper by finding his man open.
Simmons' total for the pts+rebs+asts market is 27.5, which is fairly pedestrian given that he averaged 28.4 in the regular season, and can be expected to see more possessions than normal playing against the NBA's fastest team. Don't take the bait with Embiid's bloated totals, this is where the value lies.
PREDICTION: Ben Simmons Over 27.5 pts+rebs+asts (-120)
Wizards vs 76ers betting card
- Philadelphia -7.5 (-110)
- Over 228.5 (-110)
- Ben Simmons Over 27.5 pts+rebs+asts (-120)
Picks made on 5/22/2021 at 11:20 a.m. ET
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