Don’t look now, but the Washington Wizards are starting to show some magic. Bradley Beal and the Wizards have won four games in a row—all as NBA betting underdogs. But the challenge increases when they visit the defending champion Los Angeles Lakers.
Even though the Lakers will once again be without Anthony Davis, they will be laying seven points at home. Can the Wizards pull off another upset...or at least cover the spread?
Find out in our free NBA picks and predictions for Wizards vs. Lakers on Monday, February 22, with tipoff scheduled for 10:00 p.m. ET.
Washington Wizards at Los Angeles Lakers betting preview
Injuries
Wizards: Ish Smith PG (out), Thomas Bryant C (Out).
Lakers: LeBron James SF (Probable), Kyle Kuzma SF (Probable), Markieff Morris PF (Probable), Anthony Davis PF (Out), Dennis Schroder PG (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 5-0 in the Wizards' last five road games and 6-1 in the Lakers' last seven games versus a team with a winning record below .400 percent. Find more NBA betting trends for Wizards vs. Lakers.
NBA sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonLos Angeles spent the day at FanDuel bouncing between -6.5 and -7, and as of 7 p.m. ET, the Lake Show is at the opener of -6.5. Interestingly, Washington is taking 59 percent of bets and 62 percent of money on the spread. The total is much more fluid, opening at 226 and dropping to 223.5, then rising all the way to 228.5. But the betting splits aren't in sync, with the Under landing 57 percent of tickets/56 percent of money.
Check out the full line movement for this gameAgainst the spread (ATS) pick
Yes, the Wizards have rattled off four consecutive victories, and they haven’t come against bottom feeders, with three of those wins coming over the Boston Celtics, Denver Nuggets, and Portland Trail Blazers.
The Wizards’ offense, led by NBA leading scorer Bradley Beal and his 32.9 points per game, is what you would call “high-volume,” as they rank 11th in scoring...and 24th in effective field goal percentage.
But it’s Washington’s play at the defensive end which has fueled this little run. The Wizards are allowing just 105.2 points per 100 possessions during their four-game winning streak, which is the fourth-best mark in the NBA over that span. That’s a long way from the team that ranks 29th in scoring defense and 24th in defensive rating.
On the other side, the Lakers’ offense and depth have taken a hit due to injuries. Davis is obviously the biggest loss, but even missing a guy like Dennis Schroder hurts. Since Davis got hurt, the Lakers are 1-3 SU and ATS, scoring just 102.3 points per game.
While it’s likely the Lakers gut out a win, it’s hard to put faith in a team that is just 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games to win by eight or more against a hot Wizards team.
PREDICTION: Wizards +7 (-110)
Over/Under pick
The total might be the best bet in this matchup and while the early money may have been on the Over, we think the value is on the Under. We mentioned the Wizards improved defense, and they’ll face a Lakers offense that ranks a surprisingly low 21st in offensive rating—and will be missing a handful of capable scorers.
Meanwhile, the Wizards are a high-volume scoring team, meaning they take a lot of shots at a low percentage. That usually doesn’t bode well against a good defense, and even with their injuries the Lakers still put in the effort at that end of the floor: Los Angeles ranks third in defensive rating and opponent effective field goal percentage.
The Under is trending in this matchup and we like that to continue.
PREDICTION: Under 228 (-110)
Player prop pick
Speaking of high-volume offense, Russell Westbrook is the epitome of a high-volume player and so this matchup against the Lakers could be a tough one for him when it comes to scoring.
First of all, his points total for this matchup is set at 20.5, a number he has gone Over just once in the Wizards’ winning streak (against the defensively challenged Trail Blazers), and over Westbrook’s last nine games he is averaging just 17.3 points on 16.4 attempts per game.
Look for Westbrook to impact the boxscore elsewhere, but we like him to go Under his points total in this one.
PREDICTION: Russell Westbrook Under 20.5 Points (-120)
Wizards vs Lakers betting card
- Wizards +7 (-110)
- Under 228 (-110)
- Russell Westbrook Under 20.5 Points (-120)
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