The No. 2 seeded Florida Gators face off against the No. 3 seed Alabama Crimson Tide in the SEC Tournament semifinals on Saturday.
These elite attacks have been lighting up the scoreboard and my Alabama vs Florida predictions are betting on a shootout today.
Here are my best free college basketball picks for this conference tournament clash on March 15, with tipoff at 7 p.m. ET.
Who will win Alabama vs Florida?
Only two spots separate the No. 4 Florida Gators from the No. 6 Alabama Crimson Tide in the KenPom and NET rankings.
While both of these teams have highly efficient offenses, the Gators have a far better defense, ranking ninth in adjusted defensive efficiency, while the Tide are 35th.
Florida beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa just a week ago and it makes sense that they would be able to beat them in a rematch at a neutral site.
Alabama vs Florida prediction
My best bet: Over 175.5 (-110 at bet365)
These national title contenders clashed in Tuscaloosa just a week ago, with the Gators handing the Alabama Crimson Tide a rare home loss. The Total was set at 178.5 in that contest and easily cashed, with the Florida Gators winning 99-94.
What was surprising about that high-scoring game was that neither side shot particularly well from the perimeter, with Florida going 8-27 and Alabama 9-25.
Based on the quality of shots taken and allowed, ShotQualityBets projected a whopping 208 points in that contest, which is why it's strange to see the O/U open 4.5 points lower for the rematch (it has since ticked up 1.5 points).
The Tide are coming off their best defensive performance this season in a 99-70 victory against Kentucky. They held the Wildcats highly-rated attack to 38% shooting from the field with just five offensive boards while forcing 16 turnovers.
That said, the Tide are 347th in the country in opponent turnover rate over the entire season, and I don't see the disruptive defense from last night appearing against a Florida offense that ranks in the Top 50 in turnover rate.
The Gators beat Missouri 95-81 last night and shot a sizzling 62% from the floor. Since getting shut down by Tennessee's elite defense on February 1, Florida's offense has been firing on an all cylinders.
The Gators have scored more than 80 points in 10 of their last 11 games and have hit the 90-point plateau in their last three.
As good as Florida's defense is, I don't see it completely slowing down an Alabama attack that leads the nation with 91.4 ppg this season.
The Tide have been held to fewer than 80 points just once in their last 15 games (against that same top-rated Volunteers defense) and hit the 90-point mark in 10 of those contests.
With both of these teams featuring highly efficient and consistent offenses that play at a breakneck pace, strap yourself in for a shootout at Bridgestone Arena and bet the Over.
Alabama vs Florida same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 174.5
Alabama ML
I know this parlay seems a bit strange since I said that the Gators would likely win, but it pays out far better than the Florida ML as a leg and makes sense, given the circumstances.
The lower the score is, the better it suits the Gators, who will need to slow down Alabama's elite offense.
But a high-scoring shootout tends to favor the Tide who have the firepower to go blow-for-blow with anyone.
It's also tough for a team to beat an evenly matched conference foe twice in a row during the same season (see the recent Alabama/Auburn games).
That makes the Tide tempting to bet on in a revenge spot, especially since they've gone 5-2 straight up and 6-1 against the spread as underdogs this season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Alabama vs Florida odds
Alabama vs Florida live odds
Alabama vs Florida opening odds
- Spread: Alabama +3.5 | Florida -3.5
- Moneyline: Alabama +140 | Florida -165
- Over/Under: Over 174 | Under 174
Odds courtesy of bet365
Alabama vs Florida betting trend to know
Despite some sky-high totals the Over the is 6-3 in Alabama last nine games while cashing in five straight contests for Florida. Find more college basketball betting trends for Alabama vs. Florida.
How to watch Alabama vs Florida
| Location | Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN |
| Date | Saturday, 3-15-2025 |
| Tip-off | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Alabama vs Florida key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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