If the Houston Cougars are going to hold BYU to just six made 3-pointers amid what may be the hottest shooting stretch in the entire country this season, then absolutely no one should expect offensive success against Kelvin Sampson’s 11th Cougars team.
The Arizona Wildcats will be the next victims of the best defense in the Big 12.
My Arizona vs. Houston predictions and college basketball picks not only expect the Cougars to win the Big 12 Tournament tonight, but also to do so thanks to their defense.
Tip comes at 6:00 p.m. ET on Saturday, March 15.
Who will win Arizona vs Houston?
Houston’s 12-game winning streak includes a win at Arizona, as well as wins at Texas Tech and at Baylor, not to mention beating Iowa State and BYU in this stretch. There may not be a more impressive set of wins in the last month in the country.
Beating Kansas and Texas Tech in the Big 12 Tournament warrants some praise for Arizona, but that latter win came at least in part because the Red Raiders opted to play without two starters, focused more on getting healthy for March Madness than on winning in Kansas City. The Wildcats still won and deserve credit for that, but recognizing that reality lessens belief in an upset tonight.
Frankly, let’s be surprised if Houston loses again this season.
Arizona vs Houston prediction
My best bet: Arizona Team Total Under 64.5 (-120 at bet365)
The Houston Cougars got bored this spring. Before last night, the Cougars were 4-7-1 against the spread since Feb. 1. Most pertinently, they were 2-7 ATS when favored by at least five points. It is hard to blame Houston.
Even if it is one of the more experienced teams in the country — No. 41, per kenpom.com — beginning a season 17-3 and riding a 13-game winning streak would create some complacency for any college athletes.
Even when that winning streak was snapped, it was in overtime against a top-10 team (Texas Tech). The Cougars had no reason to panic.
Focus on moments where Houston might have had to worry, moments where competitive verve was engaged early on: The Cougars went 2-0-1 ATS, all three of those games coming on the road, one of them being at the Arizona Wildcats.
Houston’s defense held all three of those opponents below their Team Totals, including the Wildcats by 9.5 points.
As great as the Cougars’ defense has been all season — choose your metric: No. 2 in the country by Pomeroy, the No. 1 in the country per barttorvik.com — it fell off late out of monotony. Torvik drops Houston’s defense to No. 6 since Feb. 1, downgraded by 3.2 points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents.
Last night’s walloping of BYU reaffirms belief in this defense. Holding BYU to 54 points on 60 shots was absurd. BYU was hitting 40% of its 3-pointers during a 15-game surge, only to fall to 21.4% last night.
Houston’s defense stops all.
Arizona has a quality offense, No. 4 in the Big 12 this season, but it does not do any one thing especially well. It moves the ball better than most, it collects offensive rebounds better than most, and it draws fouls better than most. But none of these traits are singular in emphasis.
Thus, Houston’s overall defense should suffocate them all.
Look at each of those categories: While the Cougars allow the ball to move, they deny offensive rebounds, and their fouls come along with forced turnovers. The Wildcats’ strengths may become weaknesses — they grabbed only 31.4% of available offensive rebounds in the Feb. 15 matchup, down from 34.0% in all Big 12 play; they turned over the ball on 17.5% of possessions, up from 15.7% in all Big 12 play.
Arizona vs Houston same-game parlay (SGP)
Arizona Team Total Under 64.5
Houston -6
Caleb Love Under 2.5 made threes
Grant the thought that last night’s conference tournament semifinal could engage college athletes even if they were favored by three scores, and then realize Houston has gone 4-0-1 ATS in its last five moments of genuine competition.
The Cougars should be trusted moving forward.
And they know to hound Arizona veteran point guard Caleb Love. He shockingly went 5-of-8 from deep last night in beating Texas Tech, but Love made just 33.1% of his 3-pointers in conference play, and he wrecked this prop in just three of his last 10 games before last night.
Clearing it tonight may require absolute desperation, but an engaged Houston defense should not even oblige that.
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Arizona vs Houston odds
Arizona vs Houston live odds
Arizona vs Houston opening odds
- Spread: Arizona +7.0 | Houston -7.0
- Moneyline: Arizona +260 | Houston -320
- Over/Under: Over 135 | Under 135
Odds courtesy of bet365
Arizona vs Houston betting trend to know
Houston has given up at least 65 points to an opponent three times in its current 12-game winning streak. Those three games were decided by an average of 11.7 points, the influx of points all coming amid blowouts. Furthermore, two of those cleared tonight’s Arizona team total by only the hook. Find more college basketball betting trends for Arizona vs. Houston.
How to watch Arizona vs Houston
| Location | T-Mobile Center, Kansas City, MO |
| Date | Saturday, 3-15-2025 |
| Tip-off | 6:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Arizona vs Houston key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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