The two top teams in the Pac-12 square off Saturday in a meeting between elite programs.
The No. 4 UCLA Bruins host the No. 8 Arizona Wildcats in Saturday’s nightcap. Any time two Top 10 teams share the floor, there are sure to be some valuable lessons gained.
The Bruins have already secured the Pac-12 regular season championship, but there are important NCAA Tournament seeding implications on the line.
Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for Arizona vs. UCLA on Saturday, March 4 below.
Arizona vs UCLA best odds
Arizona vs UCLA picks and predictions
The Bruins are one of the elite programs in college basketball and are a serious National Championship contender. They rank second overall in KenPom led by a superb defense (second in adjusted efficiency), and the offense is holding its own at 19th in adjusted efficiency. They’re one of three teams ranking inside the Top 20 in both metrics, with No. 1 Houston and No. 5 Purdue being the other two.
Arizona remains a power in the Pac-12 as well, checking in at 11th in KenPom. The Wildcats haven’t skipped a beat after the coaching change two years ago, notching a 58-9 record in the Tommy Lloyd era.
According to Lloyd, his team has emphasized taking care of the ball lately. That paid off against the Trojans as Arizona coughed the ball up just 10 times despite facing pressure for most of the night. Oumar Ballo and Azuolas Tubelis were able to dominate the paint — combining for 35 points and 15 rebounds.
Both teams still have motivation to win in order to improve their current projected seed in the NCAA Tournament — or at least not to drop down a tier. According to Bracket Matrix, both teams currently project as a No. 2 seed.
UCLA still has a shot of securing a No. 1 seed with a win Saturday night and then a strong showing in the Pac-12 tournament, while Arizona is in danger of dropping to a No. 3 seed with poor performances going forward.
The Bruins have been going at a value in the betting market all season long with a 17-12-1 ATS record. I believe UCLA is the better team in a vacuum as the best team on the West Coast. This game isn’t being played in a vacuum, however — it’ll be played inside a raucous Pauley Pavillion on Senior Night.
Jaime Jaquez and Tyger Campbell are two program legends, so this should be a special night honoring a pair of very special seniors, among others. UCLA also has a revenge angle after falling 58-52 at Arizona in the first matchup despite holding a lead for most of the first half.
I’ll take the Bruins at -4.5 and would play them up to -6.
My best bet: UCLA -4.5 (-120 at FanDuel)
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Arizona vs UCLA spread analysis
The current spread resides between UCLA -4.5 and -5 depending on the book.
The Bruins are undefeated at home this season with a pristine 16-0 record. Not only have they been unbeatable at Pauley Pavillion, but they’ve also been profitable with a 10-6 ATS mark.
UCLA is led by Jaquez’s 17.3 ppg, while Campbell (12.7 ppg) and Jaylen Clark (13.0 ppg) also average double figures. Sharpshooter David Singleton should be honored during Senior Night as well, a great moment for the fifth-year player who is averaging a career-best 9.2 ppg while shooting 42.5% from behind the arc.
Freshman Amari Bailey (9.8 ppg) is a high-level scorer who will be relied upon at times in the big dance, while big man Adem Bona has been one of the best first-year players in the country considering his massive role protecting the paint for one of the top teams in the nation.
Arizona is 6-3 straight up in away games this season, losing to non-Tournament teams in Utah, Oregon, and Stanford. They weren’t narrow defeats either, as the losses came by a combined 43 points — an average of 14.3 per game.
The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings between these two schools and I will be backing that trend to continue.
Arizona vs UCLA Over/Under analysis
The total opened at 149.5 before taking some quick money to the Under. Currently, it resides between 148 and 148.5 depending on the book.
The Wildcats are 16-14 to the Over this season. They’ve tended to get into shootouts when playing on the road, going Over the total in six of their nine true road games. Looking at recent performance, they have cashed the Over in four straight road games.
UCLA is 16-14 to the Under this season — the direct inverse of Arizona. The Bruins have been a terrific bet to the Under during conference games, cashing in 13 of their last 19 games.
It’ll be interesting to see which team’s style of play wins out in what will be a stark contrast of tempo. It’s no secret that Lloyd’s team likes to play with pace, ranking 10th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric. UCLA likes to slow things down offensively, checking in at 236th in adjusted tempo.
The first matchup saw just 110 combined points. It was a strange game in which UCLA looked very flat and couldn’t hit a shot to save its life, connecting on just four of 20 three-point attempts.
That was during a stretch in the season when the Bruins’ looked inept at points offensive, but they’ve righted the ship since then and should be able to capitalize against a mediocre Arizona defense that ranks 57th in adjusted efficiency (KenPom).
UCLA lives inside the arc offensively, ranking sixth in two-point attempts per game (43.5). Despite its size, Arizona ranks 310th in opponent two-point field goal attempts per game (38.9).
Tubelis has been so poor defensively at times that he’s been benched despite being one of the most potent offensive weapons in the country. The Wildcats like to force teams to the midrange, but that’s where UCLA is comfortable.
Arizona ranks fifth in points per game (83.5) offensively and eighth in field-goal shooting (49.4%) despite playing at such a high tempo and therefore taking more shots. The Wildcats should be able to contribute to the Over as well despite facing a great defense.
I fancy the Over, especially if the line continues to drop.
Arizona vs UCLA betting trend to know
The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings between these schools. Find more college basketball betting trends for Arizona vs. UCLA.
Arizona vs UCLA game info
| Location: | Pauley Pavilion, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Saturday, March 4, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
