Baylor vs Oregon Picks and Predictions: Ducks Won't Find Middle Ground

For Baylor Bears basketball fans, things could not be looking any better than they are now. Following last year’s national title win, the 9-0 Bears are coming off a defensive masterclass win over No. 6 Villanova and now face a 6-5 Oregon Ducks team that has seen shaky results thus far. 

Find out if the Bears can keep rolling with our college basketball picks and predictions for Baylor vs. Oregon on December 18.

Baylor vs Oregon odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Baylor started as -9 favorites at low limit market-making books prior to moving to -7. The total opened at 137.5, and currently sits at 136. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Baylor vs Oregon predictions

• Prediction: Baylor -7 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 136 (-110)
• Best bet: Baylor -7 (-110)

Predictions made on 12/18/2021 at 12:05 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Baylor vs Oregon game info

• Location: Matthew Knight Arena, Eugene, OR
• Date: Saturday, December 18, 2021
• Tip-off: 10:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN2

Baylor at Oregon betting preview

Injuries

Baylor: None.
Oregon: Lok Wur F (Questionable).

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Baylor is 6-2-1 against the spread this season. Find more NCAA betting trends for Baylor vs. Oregon.

Baylor vs Oregon picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

Baylor is one of seven remaining undefeated teams for a reason. They currently rank Top 5 in KenPom offensive and defensive efficiency, a mark only one team has achieved in the last decade at season-end: Villanova, the 2016 national champions. On the defensive end, Baylor sucks the air out of opposing offenses through its “No Middle” defense, which keeps attackers out of the paint, funneling them to the court’s boundaries.

When teams attempt ball screens to free up space, Baylor “ices” the ball-handler through aggressive positioning and switches to keep the ball moving towards the sideline. When passes are made out and around the perimeter, the Bears then aggressively scramble to close-out and force contested threes or another pass. With each additional pass, the likelihood of a defender turning over the ball increases.

Baylor’s success isn’t just due to scheme magic, as No Middle requires versatile, intelligent, and quick defenders to execute all the responsibilities. Baylor happens to have that, and the proof is in the pudding. They rank seventh in the nation in turnovers forced per game (19.33) and fourth in steals per game (11.0). Their elite ability to scramble and close out has led to a 27.9% three-point percentage allowed (37th) and their help defense inside has netted a 43.3% two-point percentage allowed (30th).

So how do you beat the “No Middle” defense? Given the nature of the aggressive scrambles to close out on the perimeter, the perimeter is the answer. With all the play-side help being deployed, the answer is passes to the weak side of the perimeter. Quite simply, Oregon is unlikely to try AND succeed by going this route. They rank 244th in 3-point attempts and 179th in 3-point percentage.

The other answer lies within Baylor’s last loss - the Big 12 Championship semifinal against Oklahoma State. 6’6 point guard Cade Cunningham was able to bully smaller defenders while also distributing the ball when help came (he had a game-high five assists). Oklahoma State got the open looks and shot 40% from three en route to a nine-point win. 

Oregon point guard Will Richardson has the height at 6’5”, but weighs just 180 pounds to Cade Cunningham’s 220. Of course, on top of that, Richardson’s team-leading scoring talent (11.8 PPG) does not compare to Cunningham’s (20.1 PPG) which was worthy of going first overall in the last NBA draft. Oregon, to its credit, has a solid offensive team ranking 30th in KenPom offensive efficiency, but it’s simply just not enough. 

With all things considered, Baylor -7 is the bet here. I expect a 71-60 win here for the Bears with chances that it could get ugly.

Prediction: Baylor -7 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

On top of the theoretical difficulties that Oregon will have scoring-wise, their poor pace doesn’t lend its hand to a high-scoring affair. The Ducks rank 302nd in the nation in possessions per game. Baylor also ranks just above average at 139th in that regard, much of that being driven by their proficiency on the offensive glass (18th).

To top it off, both teams aren't particularly privy to getting to the charity stripe, with Oregon ranking 151st and Baylor ranking 272nd in free throw attempts per game. All in all, there isn’t much here to suggest this game going Over.

Prediction: Under 136 (-110)

Best bet

Oregon, to its credit, has played seven of its eleven games against teams inside the Top 100 of KenPom’s efficiency ratings, but it’s 2-5 in those contests. In those five losses the Ducks have averaged a losing margin of 15.6, and a matchup with the Bears isn’t exactly the easiest place to right the ship.

Pick: Baylor -7 (-110)

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