Last Minute Final Four Odds, News & Injuries

Before making your March Madness bets, check out the last-minute news, injury updates, and odds you need to know from college basketball expert Rohit Ponnaiya.

Rohit Ponnaiya - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Rohit Ponnaiya • Betting Analyst
Apr 5, 2025 • 12:53 ET • 4 min read
Johni Broome of the Auburn Tigers
Photo By - Imagn Images.

We're just a few hours away from what might be one of the best Final Four matchups in college basketball history.

The Florida Gators will take on the Auburn Tigers at 6:09 p.m. ET, and the Houston Cougars will battle the Duke Blue Devils immediately after. 

All four of these schools are among the 10 highest-rated teams in KenPom history, which should make for some great games. 

Before making your March Madness bets check out the last-minute news, injury updates, and odds you need to know for today's Final Four matchups from the Alamodome in San Antonio.

1 Florida vs 1 Auburn

6:09 p.m. ET | San Antonio, TX | CBS

Florida vs Auburn line movement

One of the most interesting things about the spread for both of these games is that they've barely seen any movement from the opening lines. The Florida Gators opened at -2.5 (-11) and briefly moved up to -3 before the buyback pushed it back to the opening number by mid-week.

At bet365, 55% of the money on the spread is on the Gators, with 57% of the handle backing them on the moneyline.

The total opened at 160.5 and has ticked down to 159.5. While the Over has cashed in 11 straight games for Florida, the Auburn Tigers have gone below their team total in seven of the last eight contests.

Road to the Final Four

The Tigers are 12-5 SU and 9-8 ATS against ranked opponents, while the Gators are 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS vs. ranked foes.

Both teams have excelled despite a brutal schedule, and they've been tested in this tournament.

The Tigers breezed by Michigan State in the Elite Eight but had poor first-half performances against Michigan, Creighton, and even 16-seed Alabama State. 

Florida had to overcome a sloppy first half against UConn in the Round of 32 and needed a barrage of late threes to mount a comeback versus Texas Tech last week.

Injury Watch: Johni Broome and Alex Condon

The biggest concern for Auburn bettors was the status of superstar forward Johni Broome. Broome hyperextended his elbow in the Elite Eight and briefly left the game in visible pain. 

Although he returned and played well, he was clearly favoring his left arm. Broome sat out practice on Tuesday and Wednesday but was a full participant on Thursday and told reporters he expects to be "100%" today. 

It's worth noting he's playing with a padded sleeve on his right (non-shooting) elbow. It's also worth keeping an eye on Florida center Alex Condon.

Condon tweaked his ankle against Maryland in the Sweet 16, and although he played in the Elite Eight, he was exposed a bit on defense. 

He practiced light on Friday (stationary working progressions and pivot drills) so that his ankle might not be at full strength.

Head-to-head history

These SEC foes faced off in Auburn on February 8, with the Gators winning 90-81 as 11-point underdogs despite missing Alijah Martin.

It will be interesting to see what adjustments Bruce Pearl will make for the rematch. These SEC foes have faced off seven times since the 2021 season, with Florida going 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS.

All five of those covers from the Gators came as underdogs.

1 Duke vs 1 Houston

8:49 p.m. ET | San Antonio, TX | CBS

Houston vs Duke line movement

The Duke Blue Devils opened as 4.5-point favorites, and that spread has ticked up half a point to -5. The O/U opened at 136.5 and briefly went up to 137 but has since come down to 136.

The Houston Cougars are currently +215 on the moneyline at bet365, but that hasn't been enough to entice bettors, with 70% of the ML handle coming in on Duke.

The Blue Devils have also gotten 53% of the ATS handle.

Road to the Final Four

Both of these teams have been dominant this season. The Cougars have lost just once since the start of December, and they haven't lost in regulation since November 9 when Auburn edged them in a nail-biter. 

The Blue Devils have also lost just once since the start of December, and they are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games. That dominance has continued in the tourney with both teams coming off blowout wins in the Elite Eight.

The Blue Devils beat Alabama 85-65, holding the highest-scoring team in the country to just 35% shooting. Meanwhile, the Cougars suffocated Tennessee in a 69-50 beatdown.

Matchup analysis

It will be interesting to see how Houston's top-rated defense matches up against Duke's top-rated offense. The Vols were unable to get the ball inside and had to settle for tough outside shots in the Elite Eight. 

The Blue Devils can attack the rim with Khaman Maluach and Cooper Flagg, and if that doesn't work, they have multiple players who can knock down contested shots on the perimeter.

Duke is 10th in the country in height efficiency per KenPom while Houston is just outside the Top 250.

The Blue Devils don't have a single rotation player under 6-foot-5, while the Cougars have a small backcourt and nobody taller than 6-foot-8 inches in their frontcourt.

That said, Houston bigs Joseph Tugler and Ja'Vier Francis have 7-foot-6 and 7-foot-5 wingspans, which make up for their lack of height.

Head-to-head history

These programs have only played against each other only once before; the Sweet 16 last year which Duke won 54-51. Tyrese Proctor is the only player remaining from that Duke team, but Houston has four returning starters.

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Betting Analyst

With a background playing soccer, rugby, and boxing, combined with a journalism degree, it's little surprise that Rohit gravitated towards the world of sports betting. He specializes in betting on UFC and college basketball, two sports where the eyeball test can tell you a lot more about matchups than any analytics. Rohit has years of experience handicapping NFL and NBA games as well as niche betting markets such as politics and Oscar odds. He's also the resident CFL expert and formerly hosted "The Chez and Ro Show" with former CFL star Davis Sanchez.

You can catch Rohit breaking down every UFC event with Joe Osborne on "P4P Picks" on the Covers YouTube channel and he also has regular appearances on "Before You Bet" with Joe. In addition, he's a regular guest on "By The Book" on the Monumental Sports Network and makes guest appearances on VSIN's "The Handle" and CBS Sports.

Rohit primarily makes his bets at bet365, which offers a wide variety of prop markets, but also has accounts at several others so he can shop around for the best prices. For Rohit, bankroll management is key. He believes you should never bet what you can't afford to lose and maximize those few betting opportunities where books misprice a line.

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