Baylor vs TCU Odds, Picks and Predictions: Frogs Can't Counter Bears Offensive

The TCU Horned Frogs will try to break a two-game losing streak when they host the streaking Baylor Bears on Saturday afternoon in a Big 12 basketball matchup.

No. 14 Baylor (18-6) has won eight of its last nine to move into a tie for second in the Big 12 standings. No. 17 TCU (17-7) has lost three of four, including an 82-61 loss to the Kansas State Wildcats on Tuesday.

The Horned Frogs won the first matchup over the Bears, but a key injury might change the dynamic in Saturday’s game. I’ll take a look at what we can expect from this matchup in my free college basketball picks and predictions for Baylor vs. TCU on February 11.

Baylor vs TCU best odds

Baylor vs TCU picks and predictions

Back on January 4, TCU pulled out an 88-87 win at Baylor. Junior guard Mike Miles Jr. was the star for the Horned Frogs in that game, scoring 33 points and assisting on the game-winning shot to lead TCU to victory.

Miles, the preseason Big 12 Player of the Year, has been TCU’s best player, averaging 18.1 points per game and shooting 53.2% from the field. The Horned Frogs have gone 15-3 this year when Miles has been healthy.

But TCU lost Miles early in its January 28 loss to the Mississippi State Bulldogs when he hyperextended his right knee. The team hasn’t been the same without its star, and including the game against the Bulldogs — in which Miles played just four minutes before exiting — the Horned Frogs have lost three of four since the injury.

It’s not as though TCU doesn’t have other scoring threats. Both forwards Emanuel Miller and Damion Baugh are averaging 13 points per game, and Baugh in particular has picked up his scoring in Miles’ absence. But without miles, the Horned Frogs no longer have an elite weapon that they can go to when they absolutely need a bucket.

That’s going to be a problem against a Baylor team that will inevitably score points on Saturday. Despite playing at a controlled pace, the Bears score 79 points per game. Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted offensive efficiency rankings place Baylor at No. 1 in the country, just ahead of the Gonzaga Bulldogs and Purdue Boilermakers. 

The Bears are averaging 1.114 points per possession despite playing one of the toughest schedules in the country and shooting an unremarkable 44.8% from the field. Baylor makes up for that by attacking the glass, averaging 10.5 offensive rebounds per game and getting to the line for an average of 22.7 free throw attempts per contest.

Based on how TCU has played without Miles, those numbers spell trouble for the Horned Frogs. Kansas State outrebounded TCU 40-28 on Tuesday, with the Wildcats grabbing 13 offensive rebounds. TCU also committed 19 turnovers, something it can’t afford to do against Baylor.

TCU played a great game to beat Baylor in the first meeting between these teams. But Miles was the difference in that contest. I could make the argument that Baylor is the slightly better team even when the Horned Frogs have Miles on the court, but that’s not something I need to worry about tonight. With TCU missing its star player and struggling to win without him, my money is on the Bears.

My best bet: Baylor moneyline (-105 at BetMGM)

Baylor vs TCU spread analysis

Baylor opened tonight’s game as a 1.5-point favorite at most books. As of Saturday morning, Baylor -1 is now the closest thing to a consensus spread on the market. However, beware that the lines are all over the place right now, and you can even find TCU as a slight favorite on some sites.

So far this season, Baylor has gone 12-11-1 against the spread, while TCU is 13-10-1 ATS on the year. The Horned Frogs have been better against the number at home, going 8-4-1 ATS in their own building.

There’s a lot to like about the Bears heading into this matchup. Baylor boasts a balanced, efficient offense, with three players averaging at least 14 points per night. Junior guard LJ Cryer (14 ppg) is questionable with a foot injury coming into the game, but unlike the Miles injury for TCU, Baylor has plenty of other options to turn to on the court even if Cryer can’t go today.

Normally, I don’t like to overemphasize short-term trends when evaluating these matchups. But the Horned Frogs have looked like a completely different team in their last four games without Miles on the court, and ignoring that would be foolish. With the line still so tight despite that key injury, I’m recommending taking Baylor either on the moneyline or on the spread, depending on where you feel you can get the most value at your sportsbook.

Baylor vs TCU Over/Under analysis

The total on today’s game opened at 149 and has remained fairly steady. Some books have added a hook either way, meaning you can find Over/Under numbers ranging from 148.5 to 149.5 depending on where you place your bets.

If that number seems high to you, keep in mind that these are two teams who like to score points. I’ve already talked up Baylor’s offense, but TCU also averages 76.6 points per game. In the first meeting between these teams, they combined for 175 points, blowing away tonight’s number.

While that game stands as an outlier, both teams have continued to play to big totals in recent days. Baylor has hit the over twice in a row, and exceeded 150 points in both games. 

Meanwhile, the Horned Frogs have suffered significantly on defense since losing Miles. TCU is allowing an average of 78.5 points in its last four contests, and has hit the Over in three of those four games. 

It’s never easy to bet the Over on such a big number, but another shootout could well be in order between these two teams on Saturday. My bet is on the Over for today’s matchup.

Baylor vs TCU betting trend to know

Baylor is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine games overall. Find more college basketball betting trends for Baylor vs. TCU.

Baylor vs TCU game info

Baylor vs TCU key injuries

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