Ohio State and Penn State face off in a battle between two Big Ten teams with similar seasons.
The Buckeyes finally got a blowout conference win as it took out Iowa at home by 17 points. It gave OSU its second straight win off the backs of a three-game losing streak and perhaps has begun a streak that can solidify their tournament chances.
Their opponent this evening is also a team that finds itself on the tournament bubble. Back-to-back losses have put the Nittany Lions behind the eightball, and they’ll need to get to work as we head into February if they want any hope of making the dance. Can it start tonight? We take a look into the matters ahead in my Ohio State vs. Penn State predictions.
Read on for my college basketball picks for Thursday, January 30.
Ohio State vs Penn State prediction
My best bet
Penn State moneyline (-165 at bet365)
My analysis
It’s hard to describe the urgency that Penn State needs to meet this game with. This is virtually the season on the line. A loss against a bubble rival will give Penn State its third straight. That would likely be enough to remove them from any tournament discussion unless it has a serious run down the stretch to finish the season. Tonight, they meet that moment, get the win, and attempt to build some forward momentum.
I’m laying some juice and grabbing the money line price as my best bet, a number that I made -174.
A disclaimer on Ohio State before we get into the X and Os.
I’ve been inclined to subconsciously fade a team led by head coach Jake Diebler after Being unimpressed by his teams when watching them and from a metric standpoint. The Buckeyes coach could only take the interim label last year because he benefited from some massive positive shot regression that had been due for a long while (like when Chris Holtmann was still coaching). Credit to him for doing that, but I’m not sure it’s a fair reflection of what to expect from him going forward. I expect a coaching advantage in favor of Penn State headman Mike Rhodes to show itself in a big way tonight.
As a general rule of thumb, it’s hard to even think about backing a road team that fouls a ton facing a team that gets to the line at a high clip. In this game, Ohio State opponents are getting to the line at nearly a 40% clip; that’s a more significant issue when facing a team like Penn State, who is getting to the line at a top 50 rate nationally. Getting into the bench could be a more significant issue for Ohio State than some other teams if the foul trouble affects the backcourt with a limited number of ball handlers. If that scenario develops, Penn State will swarm like a shark in the water.
This is already a Nittany Lions defense predicated on heavy ball pressure and has earned a top-25 forced turnover rate in the nation to back that up. When guards Bruce Thorton or John Mobley have gone to the bench this season, Ohio State has seen an essentially average turnover rate climb by 7%.
This is a very realistic nightmare scenario that could play out tonight, and the logic is relatively simple: Ohio State fouls at a high rate, Penn State draws more fouls at home, and Thorton or Mobley will guard the players who draw the most fouls on the team. That will be all she wrote, but even if that doesn't occur, the decisive advantage at the line is a major advantage.
These are two evenly matched-teams outside the fouling and turnover issues. Because of this, I see those issues as too much for Ohio State to overcome.
Ohio State vs Penn State same-game parlay (SGP)
Penn State moneyline
Sean Stewart Under 5.5 points
We’re pairing a pretty low-player prop to go Under with our best bet. It follows the same logic of our best bet. Sean Stewart has the highest foul rate among Ohio State players, averaging just over 10 per game.
He’s played one other Big Ten team on the road that ranks in the top five of the Big Ten in free throw rate. That came against Purdue, where he picked up four fouls in 15 minutes and finished with five points despite shooting 100% from the field. I think we will see a similar issue unfold tonight.
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Ohio State vs Penn State odds
Ohio State vs Penn State live odds
Ohio State vs Penn State opening odds
- Spread: Ohio State +2.5 | Penn State -2.5
- Moneyline: Ohio State +125 | Penn State -150
- Over/Under: Over 148.5 | Under 148.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Ohio State vs Penn State betting trend to know
Ohio State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 24 of their last 36 games (+11.20 Units / 27% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Ohio State vs. Penn State.
How to watch Ohio State vs Penn State
| Location | Bryce Jordan Center, University Park, PA |
| Date | Thursday, 1-30-2025 |
| Tip-off | 6:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
Ohio State vs Penn State key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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