Mississippi meets Texas in a game that's chock full of storylines.
For one, it's the first matchup with Rebels head coach Chris Beard against the school that fired him in January of 2023. Secondly, the Longhorns are squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble, and a win here could put them on the right side.
Mississippi has been reeling and will be looking to snap a three-game losing streak, with its last loss coming at Missouri. Texas has played better lately, especially compared to its opponent, with three wins in their previous four. The script flips here as we preview the matchup in my Texas vs. Mississippi predictions.
Read on for my college basketball picks for Wednesday, January 29.
Texas vs Mississippi prediction
My best bet
Mississippi -6.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Regarding situational spots, this is as good as any for the Mississippi Rebels.
They'll be desperate to snap their recent losing skid, and they'll have the unique motivation to get a win for their head coach. With that in mind, you're certainly paying a premium on the spread, but it's not enough. I'm grabbing the Rebels here with my best bet. There's much more to like here than just the spot, too.
The Rebels' biggest issue lately has been letting their opponents dictate pacing. They have lost three straight games with over 70 possessions. Mississippi fails in that style, and that's shown up in its record this season.
Mississippi has just one loss in a game that has seen less than 70 possessions. That lone loss is coming at the start of the year at Purdue. Conversely, four of their five losses have come when games have been sped up. They'll be able to get the terms of this game at a relatively slow pace, given that both teams are comfortable with a possession total in the mid-60s. And when they've done that, they've been able to flex their regular coaching advantage, like I suspect they'll have here.
The Texas Longhorns do have a few offensive advantages. The most obvious is the bigs cutting to the basketball, scoring over a point per possession. The issue for Texas is that they've lacked the maturity to show they can be efficient enough against teams with equal talent in games mostly played in the halfcourt. Outside of that, the Rebels' offensive advantages outweigh them.
Mississippi gets the majority of its halfcourt offense in two places. Via off-the-dribble, usually through a backcourt of Jaemyn Brakefield or Sean Pedulla, or off-pick and pops where they run plays at a frequency rate in the 80th percentile. These are two places that Texas has struggled to defend the most, allowing above the national average against both sets.
This game will be played mainly in the halfcourt, so it favors the team with multiple clear advantages. That team also values my model's projected spread of seven points. Take the Rebels to get a convincing bounce-back win.
Texas vs Mississippi same-game parlay (SGP)
Mississippi -6.5
Under 141
Given the above handicap, we can quickly establish that this will likely be a low-scoring game if Mississippi covers. Thus, I saw some value in this number with a projection of 140.
Texas will want to get out and get a few easy ones in transition. Mississippi will be committed to not letting that happen, and I suspect they'll regularly force them deep into shot clocks.
If we can avoid late-game fouls to overextend the game, we squeak by with an Under.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Texas vs Mississippi odds
Texas vs Mississippi live odds
Texas vs Mississippi opening odds
- Spread: Texas +7 (-110) | Mississippi -7 (-110)
- Moneyline: Texas +240 | Mississippi -300
- Over/Under: Over 141 (-110) | Under 141 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Texas vs Mississippi betting trend to know
Mississippi has hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 32 games (+8.15 Units / 1% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Texas vs. Mississippi.
How to watch Texas vs Mississippi
| Location | The Sandy and John Black Pavilion at Ole Miss, Oxford, MS |
| Date | Wednesday, 1-29-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
Texas vs Mississippi key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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