A classic ACC rivalry opens what will be a busy week for the Duke Blue Devils, hosting the North Carolina State Wolfpack tonight at Cameron Indoor Stadium.
Duke rides a 13-game winning streak into this matchup and the point spread reflects that dominance, with the Blue Devils laying 22 points. However, the Wolfpack tend to punch up at their Tobacco Road foes and lean into their defense and plodding pace to keep it competitive, as my NC State vs Duke predictions indicate.
Here are my best college basketball picks for this 8:30 p.m. ET tip on Monday, January 27 on ESPN.
NC State vs Duke prediction
My best bet
Under 134.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Duke is on track for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament and can put some notable ticks on its resume this week, with big games against NC State and North Carolina.
To keep those wins coming, the Blue Devils need to tighten the bolts on an offense that seems to disappear at the worst times. Those sudden lulls almost cost Duke against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons on Saturday.
The offense went cold in the second half, opening the door for the Demon Deacons to go on a 17-1 run. Duke countered in the closing minutes, with super freshman Cooper Flagg taking over, winning 63-56 — a final score that fell well Under the closing total of 136 points.
Tonight’s total is a touch shorter, sitting at 134.5 with the Dukies coming back to Cameron. However, North Carolina State doesn’t bend much on defense when it comes to these Carolina clashes.
The Wolfpack lug a four-game losing skid to Durham but continue to play competitive basketball. North Carolina State’s last five games have had a margin of six points or less, with the Wolfpack leaning into their defense. The Under is 4-1 O/U in those contests.
North Carolina State doesn’t give up easy buckets, rating out among the better defenses at protecting the rim and slowing down teams in transition. It forces foes into a half-court set and to work the ball around, chewing up an average of 19 seconds per opponent’s possession (fourth-most in the country).
That’s fine with Jon Scheyer’s squad. Duke thrives in the half-court and averages more than 17 seconds per possession, using ball movement to find spot-up shooters.
The sticky part is that the Blue Devils haven’t been the most consistent shooting team, especially from beyond the arc, over the past four games. Outside of a hot day against Miami (17-for-32), Duke is a collective 31% from distance in the other three showings.
Duke and NC State played Under in all three meetings last season and are 1-6 O/U in head-to-head matchups since 2020-21. Game projections call for a final combined score between 130 and 131 points, which gives us plenty of headroom for the Under 134.5.
Cooper Flagg pick: Re-cooping boards
My best bet
Cooper Flagg Over 7.5 rebounds (-125 at bet365)
My analysis
The Wolfpack don’t give up many easy looks, which means Duke will have to settle for some less-than-ideal attempts late into the shot clock.
Unfortunately for NC State, it’s not great at keeping opponents off the glass.
North Carolina State ranks 280th in rebound rate and has a glaring weakness when it comes to opponents’ offensive rebounds, sitting 319th in offensive rebound rate allowed and watching their last three foes collect almost 11 offensive boards per game.
Flagg is averaging eight rebounds a night in his first year in Durham, with 1.6 of those coming on the offensive glass. His player projections for Monday sit above eight rebounds and I project an even greater number of boards, given the matchup.
NC State vs Duke same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 134.5
Cooper Flagg Over 7.5 rebounds
Duke moneyline
Two methodical offenses will chew up a lot of the shot clock in a rivalry that has produced five straight Under results.
Flagg crashes the glass against a soft Wolfpack frontcourt and goes for eight or more boards.
The Blue Devils should be able to hold off the pesky Wolfpack for another win on their resume even if they can't cover the lofty spread.
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NC State vs Duke odds
NC State vs Duke live odds
NC State vs Duke opening odds
- Spread: NC State +22.5 (-110) | Duke -22.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: NC State +2800 | Duke -20000
- Over/Under: Over 134.5 (-110) | Under 134.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365.
NC State vs Duke betting trend to know
Duke and North Carolina State have gone Under in five straight meetings. Find more college basketball betting trends for NC State vs. Duke.
How to watch NC State vs Duke
| Location | Cameron Indoor Stadium, Durham, NC |
| Date | Monday, 1-27-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
NC State vs Duke key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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