A pair of Top-12 teams face off in Knoxville tonight when the Tennessee Volunteers host the Kentucky Wildcats.
My Kentucky vs. Tennessee predictions think that home-court advantage will be enough to back the Vols against a Wildcats squad that's been getting off to poor starts.
Here are my best free college basketball picks for this SEC showdown on Tuesday, January 28 at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Kentucky vs Tennessee prediction
My best bet
Tennessee first-half -5.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Tennessee Volunteers are coming off a razor-close loss on the road against No. 1 Auburn. However, the Vols have been dominant at home, going 11-0 straight up and 8-3 against the spread.
The Kentucky Wildcats have lost three of their last five games and their explosive offense struggled on the road in defeats against Vanderbilt and Georgia. They'll have a tough time scoring against a Tennessee squad that has the highest-rated defense in the country per KenPom — especially with Kentucky's extreme home/away shooting splits.
The Wildcats have a sizzling 60.4 eFG% at home but that plummets to 48.9% on road and neutral courts. They've been reliant on their perimeter shooting but have a modest 3-point percentage of 33% away from home while Tennessee has the best 3-point defense (25.4%) in the country.
On the other end of the floor, the Vols shoot a sizzling 59.8% from inside the arc at home while Kentucky sits outside the Top 200 in opponent 2-point percentage (51.7%).
The Wildcats have been getting off to sluggish starts when they aren't playing in Lexington. They've trailed by 7+ points at halftime in six of seven games this season away from home. With Tennessee boasting a first-half scoring margin of +11.4 points per game at Food City Center, back them on the 1H spread tonight.
Kentucky vs Tennessee same-game parlay (SGP)
Tennessee 1H -5.5
Under 147.5
Chaz Lanier Under 1.5 assists
The Wildcats love to push the pace but Tennessee is 335th in the country in adjusted tempo and has shown the ability to slow down up-tempo attacks. The Wildcats are 5-2 to the Under in neutral site or road games this season while the Vols are 4-12 O/U in their last 16 games.
Chaz Lanier leads the Volunteers with 18 points per game but the guard is a subpar passer. He has logged a total of just two assists in his last seven contests and has gone below this number in 15 of 20 games this season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Kentucky vs Tennessee odds
Kentucky vs Tennessee live odds
Kentucky vs Tennessee opening odds
- Spread: Kentucky +9 | Tennessee -9
- Moneyline: Kentucky +325 | Tennessee -425
- Over/Under: Over 148.5 | Under 148.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Kentucky vs Tennessee betting trend to know
The Wildcats have only covered the first-half spread in 12 of their last 34 games (-12.55 Units / -32% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Kentucky vs. Tennessee.
How to watch Kentucky vs Tennessee
| Location | Food City Center, Knoxville, TN |
| Date | Tuesday, 1-28-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Kentucky vs Tennessee key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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