Two familiar foes battle in the Bay tonight, as the Oklahoma Thunder travel to San Francisco for a showdown with the Golden State Warriors in a prime-time matchup full of star power.
My Thunder vs. Warriors predictions turn back to a betting favorite. Read my NBA picks to see why I love the Over on Isaiah Hartenstein’s combo prop and how you should bet the point spread and point total for this 10 p.m. ET tip on ESPN on Wednesday, January 29.
Thunder vs Warriors prediction
My best bet
Isaiah Hartenstein Over 26.5 points + rebounds + assists (-120 at bet365)
My analysis
We’ll keep running this back until the line jumps up, as Isaiah Hartenstein has been uber-productive in his first season with the Oklahoma City Thunder. He’s averaging 11.8 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 4.2 assists across 29.9 minutes per game — all career highs.
Hartenstein is averaging 28.2 PRAs this season, so he can finish with a below-average performance and still hit the Over tonight. At home, he’s averaged 25.9 PRAs, but on the road, he’s averaged a healthy 29.6. On the season, the Golden State Warriors have allowed the 10th-most rebounds to opponents, which sets the prolific rebounder up nicely at Chase Center.
Hartenstein has delivered at least 27 PRAs in 11 of 15 road games and 16 of 25 overall this season. He finished with a 14/14/3 line at Golden State on November 27.
The Warriors rank 10th in defensive rating at 111.8. Over the last nine games without Draymond Green, that rating has sunk to 117.3 (26th). Golden State has allowed opposing centers to average 41.7 PRAs this season, and as Oklahoma City’s only healthy true center should be able to take advantage.
Hartenstein should have no problem cruising past this line tonight against an undersized and shorthanded Warriors frontcourt that’s still missing Jonathan Kuminga and Green.
Thunder vs Warriors same-game parlay
Isaiah Hartenstein Over 26.5 pts+reb+ast
Warriors +10
Over 227.5
I fully expect the Thunder to win outright, but Golden State can keep it close, especially if Stephen Curry has a trademark game. Curry has averaged nearly 34 points per game against the Thunder over the last three seasons, so a big game at home is certainly in the cards.
Six of the last 10 head-to-head meetings between these teams were decided by fewer than 10 points, and the Thunder have only one double-digit victory over the Warriors in that span. Curry sat that 128-109 loss out.
With Curry expected to play tonight after sitting Tuesday, I’m betting on the Warriors covering at home. They are 6-3 ATS as underdogs of at least five points this season.
The Thunder have hit the Over in eight of 10, and the Warriors have gone Over in three of four. Despite both teams hitting the Under or pushing in at least half of their games this season, the head-to-head record points to a high-scoring affair.
The Over has hit in nine of the last 10 meetings, and Curry and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander have shown out when facing one another. I expect that trend to continue tonight.
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Thunder vs Warriors odds
Thunder vs Warriors live odds
Thunder vs Warriors opening odds
- Spread: Oklahoma City -10.5 (-110) | Golden State +10.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Oklahoma City -525 | Golden State +390
- Over/Under: Over 227 (-110) | Under 227 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Thunder vs Warriors spread and Over/Under analysis
- Oklahoma City has covered in five of its last 10, and the Thunder are 29-14-3 ATS this season.
- Golden State is 5-5 ATS across its last 10, bringing the team’s ATS record to 22-23-1.
- The Thunder have hit the Over in eight of 10, and the team is 22-22-2 through 46 games.
- The Warriors have hit the Over in three of four, but the team is 21-25 to the Under this season.
Thunder vs Warriors trend
The visiting team has won in three of the last four and six of the last 10 head-to-head matchups between the Thunder and Warriors. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Warriors.
How to watch Thunder vs Warriors
| Location | Chase Center, San Francisco, California |
| Date | Wednesday, 1-29-2025 |
| Tip-off | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Thunder vs Warriors latest injuries
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