It's the Big Ten after dark tonight when Iowa State meets Arizona. Both programs are hot with the same 9-1 record in their last 10 games.
Read on for my Iowa State vs. Arizona predictions and college basketball picks for Monday, January 27 as I explain why this Jaden Bradley prop stands out to me, and why Caleb Love will have a disappointing evening.
Iowa State vs Arizona prediction
My best bet
Jaden Bradley Over 0.5 made threes (-125 at bet365)
My analysis
After opening as a 1-point underdog, the Arizona Wildcats are now trending toward being 3-point favorites as of Monday afternoon. While I agree with that movement, it's gotten a bit out of range for me for playable value. I landed on Jaden Bradley to make a 3-pointer as my best bet instead.
The blueprint here is what happened in the Texas Tech matchup, where Arizona suffered its only loss over the last 10 games. The defensive structures are similar, and the story is about creating your shot.
The Red Raiders' defense forces offensive players to create their shots by design. It was a game that saw Bradley as the leading scorer but, more importantly, getting up the second-most threes he's had in a game in 2025. While the Iowa State Cyclones defense is similar, it still puts a heavy burden on isolation plays from opponents, which they've struggled to defend periodically this season.
Ask West Virginia's Javon Small about these. He's one of the better isolation scorers in college basketball and dropped 27 points on the Cyclones in a win earlier this month. That goes in keeping with what Iowa State has done this season, allowing .93 points per possession on dribble jumper plays, which ranks them in the Bottom 17% nationally defending it.
I think Bradley is the best option to take advantage of it, and beyond the arc it is the best place this could show itself (especially given the low ask of just one made three). Longtime college player Caleb Love should soak up the attention of Iowa State's best backcourt defender, Tamin Lipsey, further helping Bradley.
Iowa State vs Arizona same-game parlay (SGP)
Jaden Bradley Over 0.5 made threes
Caleb Love Under 3.5 assists
Since his seven-assist outburst right before the New Year, Love has only gone Over this assist number once. I'll pair it with my best bet for this same-game parlay.
The logic is simple as it follows the same process as my best bet. Arizona's players will be asked to make regular plays off the dribble against such a sturdy defense that it's not conducive to racking up many assists. I feel comfortable with this number as long as we can avoid Love getting a few easy ones in transition.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Iowa State vs Arizona odds
Iowa State vs Arizona live odds
Iowa State vs Arizona opening odds
- Spread: Iowa State -1 | Arizona +1
- Moneyline: Iowa State -115 | Arizona -105
- Over/Under: Over 152 | Under 152
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Iowa State vs Arizona betting trend to know
Arizona has covered the 1H Spread in 21 of their last 36 games (+3.70 Units / 9% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Iowa State vs. Arizona.
How to watch Iowa State vs Arizona
| Location | McKale Memorial Center, Tucson, AZ |
| Date | Monday, 1-27-2025 |
| Tip-off | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Iowa State vs Arizona key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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