Starting the Big 12 season with 13 straight losses was rather ugly for the Colorado Buffaloes. Yet, they are only one-bucket underdogs to the TCU Horned Frogs this afternoon in the Big 12 Tournament.
My Colorado vs. TCU predictions believe the Buffaloes' defense will frustrate the Horned Frogs on Tuesday, March 11.
Colorado vs TCU prediction
Who will win Colorado vs TCU?
Advancing to the second round of the Big 12 Tournament would be quite the reversal for Colorado, not only losing its first 13 conference games but losing 11 of those by multiple buckets and nine of those by double-digits. By comparison, winning three of the last seven games has been a wild improvement.
The Buffaloes ended their regular season with an upset of TCU, a scheduling quirk that occurs twice this afternoon in Kansas City. The Horned Frogs have lost four of their last five games, and my college basketball picks believe that tailspin sheds some value on the Colorado moneyline at +120 at bet365.
My best bet
TCU team total Under 67.5 (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
The Colorado Buffaloes' biggest weakness is the open looks it gives up from deep. Conference opponents hit 35.7% of their 3-pointers this season, the highest rate in the Big 12. For context, the Division I median 3-point rate is 33.8%.
The Buffaloes gave up those looks on 39.2% of opposing field-goal attempts, not as wretched a rate but not a low enough one to counteract how open those looks tend to be.
Fortunately for Colorado on Saturday and now again today, the TCU Horned Frogs' biggest weakness is its inability to make shots from deep. The Horned Frogs shot 28.1% in conference play this season, the lowest rate in the Big 12. For context: Across the entire season, that kind of shooting would rank No. 361 out of 364 Division I teams, ahead of only UMass, Cal State Fullerton, and Lindenwood.
TCU takes those shots on 33.2% of their field-goal attempts, also the lowest rate in the Big 12 and a prudent choice given how badly the Frogs shoot.
At Colorado on Saturday, TCU shot 4 of 18 from deep. That 22.2% mark was not the greatest concern. The greatest concern was that the Horned Frogs took 3-pointers on 31.6% of their field-goal attempts, and they still scored only 56 points. TCU avoided the expected pratfall against Colorado, and it still lost by 20 points.
If and when the Buffaloes force a greater reliance on long-range looks today, the Horned Frogs will keep missing them. Those empty possessions in a cavernous T-Mobile Center should assure TCU falls short of this team total.
Colorado vs TCU same-game parlay (SGP)
TCU team total Under 67.5
Colorado moneyline
TCU is simply struggling to end its season. The Horned Frogs have not only gone 1-4 outright in the last couple weeks, but they have also gone 2-3 against the spread, falling short of bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 4.9 points even when including the pair of ATS successes.
Falling short of bookmakers’ expectations by two buckets in a game with a spread of -2.5 is another way of saying TCU should lose today, even if Colorado is one of the worst major-conference teams in the country.
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Colorado vs TCU odds
Colorado vs TCU live odds
Colorado vs TCU opening odds
- Spread: Colorado +1.5 | TCU -1.5
- Moneyline: Colorado +105 | TCU -125
- Over/Under: Over 134.5 | Under 134.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Colorado vs TCU betting trend to know
After starting conference play 1-10 ATS, Colorado has gone 7-2 ATS since February 8, exceeding expectations by an average of 5.7 points, even including the pair of ATS losses. Find more college basketball betting trends for Colorado vs. TCU.
How to watch Colorado vs TCU
| Location | T-Mobile Center, Kansas City, MO |
| Date | Tuesday, 3-11-2025 |
| Tip-off | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Colorado vs TCU key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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