Duke vs North Carolina Odds, Picks and Predictions: Tar Heels Offense Feeling Blue

The Duke Blue Devils and North Carolina Tar Heels wrap up their regular season with a classic NCAA hoops showdown on Saturday.

Both programs have failed to live up to expectations this season but will likely take part in March Madness where they are capable of making a run. College basketball odds opened with the Tar Heels as 3-point home favorites before growing to -4.5.

Will the Blue Devils pull off the upset in this rivalry matchup or is there another angle to consider? I let you know with my best free Duke vs. North Carolina college basketball picks and predictions for March 4.

Duke vs North Carolina best odds

Duke vs North Carolina picks and predictions

The Tar Heels average a respectable 73.7 points per game in conference play but have scored fewer than 73 points in four of their last five contests. They also scored just 57 points on 34% shooting when they faced Duke last month in Durham.

While they should shoot a bit better at home (and get to the free-throw line for more than three attempts), it will still be tough for them to surpass their team total of 73.5. 

Keep in mind that they shoot just 42.3% from the floor in conference play and now face a Blue Devils squad that holds ACC foes to 67.2 ppg on 41.9% shooting. 

The Tar Heels are at their best when they are cutting to the hoop (12th in the country in efficiency on cut plays per ShotQualityBets) and they do a good job of finishing at the rim. However, Duke defends cuts very well (27th in defensive efficiency against that play type) and does an excellent job of protecting the rim thanks to its size and shot-blocking ability.

My best bet: North Carolina team total Under 73.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

Duke vs North Carolina spread analysis

Both teams have been disappointments this season. Duke has struggled with consistency due to a freshmen-filled roster under first-year head coach Jon Scheyer, while UNC's outside shooting and defense has regressed from last year when it made it to the national title game. 

Nonetheless, the Blue Devils are still 23rd in the NET rankings and enter this contest on a five-game winning streak. North Carolina is 44th in the NET rankings and needs some quality wins down the stretch to claim a spot in the NCAA Tournament. The Tar Heels have won their last three games but had gone just 1-5 straight up and against the spread in their previous six contests.

When these teams faced off a month ago, Duke won 63-57 in Durham with it scoring the go-ahead basket with less than two minutes remaining. 

UNC could be in line for revenge tonight since its gone 12-2 SU at home this season with an average scoring margin of +11.7 ppg. Meanwhile, the Blue Devils have gone just 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS on the road.

Duke has been more impressive on defense than UNC, with the Blue Devils 31st in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. However, the Tar Heels are slightly more efficient on offense thanks to a lower turnover rate (24th in the country at 15%). 

Duke's offense has looked stagnant at times this season and has struggled to find open looks in half-court sets. Freshman big man Kyle Filipowski leads the team with 14.8 points and 9.0 rebounds per game while point guard Jeremy Roach (13.2 ppg, 3.3 apg) is the only other Blue Devil averaging double digits in points. 

UNC has three players averaging more than 15 ppg led by guard Caleb Love (16.9 ppg) and center Armando Bacot (16.5 ppg, 10.8 rpg). 

Both of these teams have controlled the glass, with Duke fourth in the country in rebound rate (56.1%) and North Carolina 24th (53.7%). However, when these teams previously clashed, the Blue Devils had a clear edge on the boards with a +10 rebounding margin. 

Duke vs North Carolina Over/Under analysis

North Carolina is 89th in the country in adjusted tempo but Duke prefers to slow things down and ranks 291st in adjusted tempo.

The Blue Devils have been stingy on D all season and have been even better lately. They've allowed fewer than 70 points in six-straight games and are surrendering just 63.7 ppg during that span.

A big reason that their defense has improved is that center Dereck Lively II has been on the floor more often. The five-star freshman is averaging 3.2 blocks per game over the last 10 contests. 

The Tar Heels have been inconsistent on defense but have been solid at Dean Smith Center where they limit visitors to 68.1 ppg on 42.3% shooting. 

Both teams also struggle from long range with UNC just 330th in the country in 3-point percentage (31.4%) while Duke ranks 255th (33%). 

Duke vs North Carolina betting trend to know

The Under is 10-3 in Duke's last 13 road games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Duke vs. North Carolina.

Duke vs North Carolina game info

Duke vs North Carolina key injuries

Pages related to this topic