The Colorado Buffaloes face the Villanova Wildcats in the first round of the inaugural College Basketball Crown tournament on Tuesday.
It's been 19 days since either team has played a game, and my Colorado vs. Villanova predictions expect that to lead to some offensive hiccups early. Here are my best free college basketball picks for this clash on April 1 from the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas.
Who will win Colorado vs Villanova?
Both of these schools struggle to defend the arc but the Colorado Buffaloes don't have the shooters to take advantage while the Villanova Wildcats lead the country in 3-point percentage (39.8%).
The Wildcats will have the best player on the floor in forward Eric Dixon, who averages 23.0 points per game on 45/42/83 shooting splits. They also have better guards with Wooga Poplar (14.5 ppg, 38.4 3PT%), Jordan Longino (11.6 ppg), and set-up man Jhamir Brickus (9.5 ppg, 4.9 apg).
Villanova clearly has the more talented starting lineup but there are concerns about preparation and focus under interim head coach Mike Nardi. Nardi has never been a head coach and will serve as a brief placeholder until former Maryland HC Kevin Willard takes over for the recently fired Kyle Neptune.
That said, things can't get worse than under Neptune, whose game management and adjustments left a lot to be desired. If anything, playing under a new coach might get this senior-laden Wildcats squad to play with some fire in what could be their last runaround. Expect Nova to win.
Colorado vs Villanova prediction
My best bet: Under 68.5 1H (-105 at bet365)
The Wildcats are 26th in the country in adjusted offense but are just 353rd in adjusted tempo, which has led to some low-scoring games. They've been held to fewer than 68 points in five of their last eight contests.
The Buffaloes don't push the pace either and they struggle on offense, averaging just 66.5 ppg since January 1. Since the start of the New Year, the Buffs are 351st in turnover rate while ranking 345th in 3-point percentage (29.6%).
Colorado has just two players that average double-digits in points; guard Julian Hammond III (12.5 ppg) and forward Andrej Jakimovski (10.4 ppg on just 39.3% shooting). The Buffs are outside the Top 300 in first half ppg (31.3), with that number ticking down to just 28.6 ppg away from home.
The Buffs are solid on the other end of the floor, ranking 53rd in adjusted defense. With that ugly offense and reliable defense, the first half Under has cashed in 10 of Colorado's last 16 games. Meanwhile, Villanova has hit the first half Under in 13 of its previous 18 contests.
The O/U has ticked up from the opening total of 141.5 to 143.5, which creates some fantastic value on the Under here. Based on the previously mentioned playing styles of both teams and the trends, I'd bet the first half Under.
When you also consider that neither team has played since March 13 and could be a bit rusty on offense, that bet looks even nicer. Especially since they're playing at the MGM Grand Garden Arena, which is a massive multi-purpose arena and could have some funky sightlines.
Colorado vs Villanova same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 68.5 1H
Villanova first to 20 points
Villanova moneyline
Villanova is 41st in the country in 1H scoring margin (+4.4 ppg) while Colorado is just 302nd with -3.4 ppg.
It's worth noting that due to the altitude in Boulder, the Buffaloes have a distinct home-court edge. There's a steep drop-off in their play away from home where that 1H margin drops to an even uglier -8.7 ppg on road and neutral sites.
The Wildcats should get off to a faster start and hit the 20-point plateau first before holding on for a victory.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Colorado vs Villanova odds
Colorado vs Villanova live odds
Colorado vs Villanova opening odds
- Spread: Colorado +125 | Villanova -150
- Moneyline: Colorado +3 | Villanova -3
- Over/Under: Over 141.5 | Under 141.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Colorado vs Villanova betting trend to know
Villanova has hit the 1H Under in 13 of its last 18 games (+7.40 Units / 36% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Colorado vs. Villanova.
How to watch Colorado vs Villanova
| Location | MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date | Tuesday, 4-1-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
Colorado vs Villanova key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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