The 2025 NCAA Tournament won’t be made into a feel-good Disney movie anytime soon.
The “madness” of March has been pretty mild with drama dampened, barely a buzzer beater, and not a Cinderella in sight.
That has the Final Four odds drum tight heading into Saturday’s showdowns in San Antonio.
For just the second time in NCAA history, all four No. 1 seeds have advanced to the national semifinal. And if you mapped the college hoops landscape all year, this isn’t a surprise.
The Auburn Tigers, Duke Blue Devils, Houston Cougars, and Florida Gators are darlings of the popular advanced metrics used to measure Big Dance potential and have been all season long.
What’s more, three of those schools (Auburn, Duke, Florida) check all the boxes for the “magic formula” that has predicted the past 20 title winners (Top 21 in offensive efficiency, Top 37 defensive efficiency, Top 12 of Week 6 rankings).
Here’s a look at the odds to win the Final Four ahead of Saturday’s March Madness semifinals.
Final Four Odds
Who is favored to win March Madness
Duke Blue Devils (+100)
Duke is the Final Four favorite at +100 odds at bet365 as of April 2, 2025.
That price is warranted considering the talent of this Duke Blue Devils squad, but it also reflects a season’s worth of NCAA Tournament futures piling up on the Dukies.
According to some bookmakers, more than 40% of the total handle for national championship book rides on the Blue Devils. Duke opened around +1000 to win the national title and was hovering at +325 at the start of the tournament - even with superstar Cooper Flagg coming off an ankle injury.
That’s a lot of liability spaced out over five months. At EVEN money, sportsbooks are clearly stating that they don’t want any more action on Duke and would welcome a Blue Devils loss in the Final Four.
Duke is currently a 5-point favorite facing Houston in the semifinal this Saturday.
Florida Gators (+280)
The Florida Gators also pose a significant threat to bookies if they can win the national championship. Florida opened as big as +4000 and books are reporting more than 11% of handle riding on UF’s title hopes.
Florida didn’t turn the corner on its season until a big upset win over Auburn in early February. From there, the Gators chomped their way through a challenging SEC slate and won the conference tournament, punching UF’s ticket as a No. 1 seed in the NCAA.
The Gators have arguably had the toughest path to San Antonio of all the semi-finalists. Florida faced defending champion UConn in the Round of 32, a talented Maryland squad in the Sweet 16, and a needed an improbable comeback to escape Texas Tech in the Elite Eight.
Florida is hoping another win over Auburn can serve as a springboard to greatness, with these SEC foes clashing for a second time this season in the Final Four on Saturday. Books have the Gators as slim 2.5-point favorites.
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Houston Cougars (+450)
It’s tough to call the Houston Cougars “underdogs”. Houston has been among the elite all year, especially when it comes to shutting down opponents. This is the top-rated defense in the land and has proven that with lockdown efforts in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight.
There’s a good share of liability tied up in UH for bookmakers, with the Cougars boasting the third highest handle among all teams and presenting bigger March Madness odds at +1400 as an opener and +600 at the beginning of the Big Dance.
That said, there are a lot of fans of Kelvin Sampson’s squad on the other side of the window for Saturday’s semifinal with Duke.
Auburn Tigers (+500)
Despite earning the No. 1 overall seed on Selection Sunday, the Auburn Tigers are underdogs against Florida in the Final Four semis and the "long shot" to win the national championship. At least when it comes to the current Final Four odds.
A big reason for that downgrade is the health of standout center Johni Broome, who battled through injury in Auburn’s win over Michigan State in the Elite Eight. Broome is expected to play in Saturday’s semifinal and when the big man is at his best, the Tigers are a tough team to topple.
Auburn opened at +3000 odds to win March Madness before the season and was a +325 co-favorite when the Round of 64 started but has since jumped to this current price of +480. The Tigers have actually played the other three semi-finalists, beating Houston but losing to Duke and Florida.
