The Arkansas Razorbacks host the No. 8 ranked Florida Gators in NCAA hoops action on Saturday afternoon.
The Gators are coming off a massive win against Tennessee, and my Florida vs. Arkansas predictions don't expect a letdown performance from them here.
Here are my best free college basketball picks for this SEC showdown on January 11.
Florida vs Arkansas prediction
My best bet
Florida -2.5 1H (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The 14-1 Florida Gators are coming off a dominant 73-43 home win against No. 1 Tennessee on Tuesday to improve to 9-1 against the spread in their last 10 games.
Now they face an Arkansas Razorbacks side that is fresh off a 73-66 loss to Ole Miss at home. Before that, they were clobbered 76-52 by Tennessee and were out-rebounded 45-24 in that contest. The Gators are second in the country in rebounding rate (58.1%) and had a +15 rebounding margin when they faced the Vols, so expect them to dominate the glass against Arkansas.
The Razorbacks entered this season with title aspirations after overhauling their roster under new head coach John Calipari. However, most of their off-season additions have underperformed and they've gone 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games. Arkansas is stacked with individual talent but hasn't really meshed as a team — which has become all-too-common for Calipari-led squads.
Arkansas is excellent in transition but its offense stalls in the half-court and plays too much isolation. The Gators are 37th at defending in transition and 20th at defending ISO plays per ShotQualityBets, so they match up well in both of those areas. They also rank third at 3-point defense, holding foes to 27.4% shooting from deep.
On the other end of the court, Florida is even better. The Gators are fourth in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and have shown they can shoot on the road. In their two road games, they dropped 87 points on 52% FG% against FSU while scoring 100 points on 55% FG% versus Kentucky.
Florida gets off to quick starts and boasts the third-best first-half scoring margin in the country at +13.3 points per game. Meanwhile, Arkansas has trailed at the half in five of their six games against high-major foes and has a first-half margin of -8.5 ppg in those contests.
Florida vs Arkansas same-game parlay
Florida -2.5 1H
Under 156.5
Alex Condon Over 7.5 rebounds
The Gators love to push the pace and average a whopping 87.3 ppg. That said, oddsmakers have adjusted to their up-tempo offense with the Under cashing in nine of their last 14 games.
Meanwhile, Arkansas has been better on defense than offense and is 6-9 O/U this season. With Bart Torvik projecting 152 points in this game and KenPom projecting 154, I'm leaning towards the Under in this SGP.
The 6-foot-11 Condon is coming off a 12-rebound performance against Tennessee. The Florida big man has grabbed more than 7.5 boards in eight of his last nine games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Florida vs Arkansas odds
Florida vs Arkansas live odds
Florida vs Arkansas opening odds
- Spread: Florida -5.5 | Arkansas +5.5
- Moneyline: Florida -230 | Arkansas +190
- Over/Under: Over 156 | Under 156
Odds courtesy of bet365
Florida vs Arkansas betting trend to know
The Gators have covered the 1H spread in 23 of their last 36 games (+10.35 Units / 25% ROI) while the Razorbacks have covered the 1H spread in just 14 of their previous 33 contests (-6.65 Units / -18% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Florida vs. Arkansas.
How to watch Florida vs Arkansas
| Location: | Bud Walton Arena, Fayetteville, AR |
| Date: | Saturday, 1-11-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Florida vs Arkansas key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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