The Villanova Wildcats begin their quest for a fourth consecutive Big East Tournament title when they face off against Georgetown in the quarterfinals of the Big East Conference Tournament.
If the Wildcats do manage to win another conference tourney, it will be earned as Nova is dealing with some significant injuries. Will the Hoyas be able to take advantage and cover the spread as 9.5-point college basketball betting underdogs?
Check out our best free Georgetown vs. No. 14 Villanova picks and predictions for NCAA hoops action on Thursday, March 11, with tipoff at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Georgetown vs Villanova odds
Sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonAbout an hour before this noon ET tipoff, Villanova is down to -6.5 at FanDuel, after opening -9 on Wednesday night. It’s two-way action with a lean toward Georgetown, which is drawing 55 percent of bets and 56 percent of money on the spread. The total opened at 141.5 and is down to 139, with 60 percent of bets on the Over and 59 percent of money on the Under.
Check out the full line movement for this gameGeorgetown Hoyas vs Villanova Wildcats betting preview
Injuries
Georgetown: Jalen Harris G (Out).
Villanova: Justin Moore G (Doubtful), Collin Gillespie G (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 4-1 in both Georgetown's and Villanova's last five games overall. Find more NCAA betting trends for Georgetown vs. Villanova.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Villanova has been bit by the injury bug at the worst possible time. Starting point guard Collin Gillespie was lost for the season after suffering a torn ACL against Creighton on March 3, then Gillespie’s backcourt mate Justin Moore suffered what is being called a “significant” ankle injury in the regular-season finale against Providence.
Losing Gillespie and Moore is a big blow to a Wildcats team that rank eighth in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency. The backcourt duo were the second and third-leading scorers for Nova, putting up 14 and 12.7 points per game respectively.
Look for Nova Head coach Jay Wright to rely more heavily on the likes of Bryan Antoine and Brandon Slater on the perimeter. But the injuries certainly don’t help. Despite winning the Big East regular-season title with an 11-4 conference record, Villanova went 3-3 SU down the stretch and 3-5-1 ATS over its last nine.
That said, the Wildcats should be able to fight through those injuries against Georgetown. The Hoyas upset Marquette 68-49 in the First Round as 3.5-point underdogs by bullying the Golden Eagles on the boards. Georgetown is one of the best rebounding teams in the Big East and used its size to outrebound Marquette 43-28.
Jahvon Blair led the Hoyas in scoring, giving them 20 points off the bench, while Qudus Wahab added 19 points. The problem for Georgetown is that it still just shot 39 percent from the field, including 21 percent from three.
Georgetown won’t be able to bully the much more talented Wildcats, and even with the injuries, the Hoyas won’t be able to keep up. Lay the points.
PREDICTION: Villanova -9.5 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
When it comes to the total, it’s no surprise to see the number sitting at 141. These Big East foes saw an average total of 144 in their two meetings earlier this season. Villanova won both, the first 76-63, falling 3.5 points below the 142.5 total, while the second game ended 84-74, going Over 145.5 by 12.5 points.
But we can quickly tell you we’re thinking this matchup will be more in line with the first matchup.
While Villanova has a great offense and great depth, replacing the likes of Gillespie and Moore can’t be underestimated and it has scored just 66.6 points per game over its last five games.
Meanwhile, Georgetown relies too heavily on 3-pointers and when shots aren’t dropping, things can get rough for the Hoyas. They averaged 65.3 points per game in their last four losses, shooting just 40.3 percent from the field—and as noted above, shot just 21 percent from deep against Marquette.
Mix in two solid, if unspectacular, defenses and we like this one to slip Under the number.
PREDICTION: Under 141 (-110)
Georgetown vs Villanova betting card
- Villanova -9.5 (-110)
- Under 141 (-110)
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