Saturday’s national semi-final between Florida and Auburn is a showdown of two of the best teams in the country. It’s also a chance for the Tigers and big man Johni Broome to get revenge for a regular-season defeat at the hands of the Gators.
While his shoulder injury is on everyone’s mind, all signs point to him being fully ready to go.
My top March Madness picks for Saturday, April 5 explain why those injury concerns have created some value in the player prop betting market.
Johni Broome player prop picks
- Best bet
Johni Broome Over 10.5 rebounds
(-105 at bet365) - SGP pick
Johni Broome Over 10.5 rebounds
Over 159.5
Tahaad Pettiford 3+ assists
(+450 at bet365)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Johni Broome best bet
Pick Johni Broome Over 10.5 rebounds (-105 at bet365)
Johni Broome may not be at 100%, but one thing that never wavers is his effort when attacking the glass. Bad shoulder or not, he’s determined to grab rebounds whenever possible and will be a window-cleaner all night for the Auburn Tigers.
Broome is averaging 4.5 offensive rebounds across the SEC and NCAA Tournaments, and only once in that span has he failed to reach double digits. That was against Tennessee, a very slow-paced game against a team with multiple bigs who got physical with him.
The Florida Gators not going to play at a slow pace, and that’s going to lead to rebounding opportunities as it often does for opponents. The Gators rank 135th in defensive rebound rate this season, and over their last 10 games, they’ve allowed an offensive rebound rate of 30.7%, ranking them in the 200s nationally.
Broome is coming off a second weekend of the tournament, where he grabbed 16 rebounds against Michigan and 14 more against Michigan State. And he had 11 in Auburn’s nine-point loss to Florida earlier this season, six of which came at the offensive end.
With 20 double-doubles on the season, Broome rarely fails to get to double-digits on the glass. The Gators have struggled in this tournament to limit high-volume rebounders, and there should be plenty of chances to pull them down at both ends of the floor with how well these teams defend.
The concerns over Broome’s injury have pushed the Over on this play to almost even money, and that’s an overcorrection in my opinion. While his playing time is down a bit in the tournament, he’s still found a way to clear this floor in all four March Madness contests.
With a spot in the National Championship on the line, I expect he’ll be even harder to stop.
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Johni Broome same-game parlay
Johni Broome Over 10.5 rebounds
Over 159.5
Tahaad Pettiford 3+ assists
Florida has upped its pace during the tournament, with an adjusted tempo ranking in the Top 35 over the last 10 games. The first meeting between these teams saw 171 points scored, going Over a total that was set around 157.
It helps that both teams are exceptional at getting second-chance points, and neither is particularly great at preventing them. Throw in the late free-throw shooting we’re likely to see and two guards who are taking over late, and you’ve got a recipe for another high-scoring affair.
One of those guards is Tahaad Pettiford, who has been a major spark off the Auburn bench. But while many are focused on his scoring output, he’s notched 14 assists over the four NCAA Tournament contests.
With at least three in each outing, I like him to match that number again just as he did in the regular-season contest against the Gators.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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