Iowa State vs Houston Odds, Picks and Predictions: Defense Tells Tonight's Tale

Two of the top programs in the nation and Big 12 co-leaders square off in a matchup that could decide the conference's regular-season title when the No. 10-ranked Iowa State Cyclones visit the No. 3 Houston Cougars today.

Iowa State enters this conference showdown looking to continue a four-game winning streak, while Houston is eyeing its fourth consecutive victory and an opportunity to avenge an early January loss at these same Cyclones. 

Who will win this important Big 12 matchup? Join me as I look closer at the college basketball odds with free college basketball picks for Iowa State and Houston on Monday, February 19. 

Iowa State vs Houston best odds

Iowa State vs Houston picks and predictions

Both programs are 9-3 in Big 12 play. They are the best two defenses in the conference, and according to KenPom, we have two of the top three defensive teams in the nation playing each other for the second time this season in a nationally televised broadcast.

The Iowa State Cyclones are rolling. They have won four straight, including a pair of huge away victories over Texas and Cincinnati during this streak, and have excelled on both ends of the floor because of the strength of their guards.

The Houston Cougars are on a similar winning streak. They’ve won three straight and are 14-0 at Fertitta Center. Their lowest winning margin over their last five home games was +15, and their guards are why the Cougars do what they do.

The backcourts for both programs are extremely physical and aggressive when closing out shooters. They force steals, alter shots, and wreak havoc on the defensive end. That doesn’t usually bode well for their opponents' high-scoring guards, and that will also affect both teams' attack tonight.

Cougars guard L.J. Cryer is coming off a massive game against Texas where he scored 26 points on 6 of 9 shooting from downtown, but he’ll have a difficult time clearing his Over 2.5 made three-pointers scoring prop tonight.

Cryer couldn’t miss Saturday against the Longhorns. His six triples were his most in a single game this season. He has made three or more 14 times through the Cougars' 25 games, but he’s also recorded zero 3-pointers in two of his previous five.

In their earlier meeting, Cyclones guards held Cryer to 2 of 9 shooting from the floor and 1 of 6 from beyond the arc. Iowa State harassed and pestered the Cougars' leading scorer constantly, chased him off the line, and forced three Cryer turnovers. This is how Iowa State plays basketball — they frustrated Cryer in Ames, and they’ll repeat that feat tonight. 

Finally, Cryer is coming off a beauty against Texas from downtown, but he enjoyed plenty of wide-open looks that he won’t get against Iowa State. The Cyclones have allowed an average of 32% from downtown during their four-game winning streak, and I expect them to harass Cryer enough that he fails to clear his three-point shooting number. 

My best bet: L.J. Cryer Under 2.5 made threes (-110 +136 at DraftKings) 50% boost available

Iowa State vs Houston same-game parlay

L.J. Cryer Under 2.5 made threes

J'Wan Roberts Over 7.5 rebounds

Emanuel Sharp Over 3.5 rebounds

50% boost available

+415 +623 at DraftKings

Because of the aggressive nature of both programs' perimeter defense, this game will likely be won on strong rebounding and second-chance points. Houston forward J’Wan Roberts has cleared his rebound prop 11 times this season and three of his previous five.

Iowa State allows the most offensive boards per tilt, and with the aggressive Cyclones defense altering long-range perimeter shots, look for Roberts and Cougars guard Emanuel Sharp to clean up. 

Sharp’s cleared his number in seven of his last nine and averages 1.2 offensive rebounds per contest. Look for the pesky guard to stick his nose in there and snag at least four caroms against a shaky Cyclones rebounding team. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Iowa State vs Houston spread and Over/Under analysis

Incredibly, the No. 10 team in the nation is as many as a +9.5 away underdog. Still, it has everything to do with Houston being undefeated this season at Fertitta because it has nothing to do with the Cougars ability to cover the spread.

The Cougars are 9-4-1 ATS at Fertitta this season, but they are 1-4-0 ATS over their last five and face the best defense they’ve seen since the last time they met the Cyclones. Iowa State is 4-3 as the away team but 5-2-0 ATS and has covered the number in eight of its last 10. 

Their previous meeting ended at 110 points. Tonight’s game opened anywhere from Over 128.5 (-110) to Over 129 (-108 at DraftKings). Based on their last meeting, that market seems high, but this will be a physical game won in the paint. Iowa State is the better shooting team overall but both programs do struggle from the free-throw line.

That seems to point to Under 129 (-109) at BetRivers as the best play on the total. This number may not remain on the board for long as I see the number dipping as we get closer to the opening tip.

I do have a lean, and that’s for Iowa State to pull off the upset. The Cyclones are 5-2 as the away team and would have an eight-game winning streak if not for a two-point road loss to the Baylor Bears that they should have won. Houston looked good Saturday against Texas, but it's looking to make program history with a 15-game home winning streak, and a half-unit on a +420 underdog with a top-three defense is worth that sprinkle. 

Iowa State vs Houston betting trend to know

Houston has only hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 36 games (-8.05 Units / -20% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Iowa State vs. Houston.

Iowa State vs Houston game info

Iowa State vs Houston key injuries

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