Iowa vs Iowa State Odds, Picks and Predictions: Cy-Hawk Supremacy On the Line

The non-conference season is slowly approaching, but rivalries are still on the cards, and we have a good one tonight when the Iowa Hawkeyes meet the Iowa State Cyclones.

Cy-Hawk is here, and Iowa is coming off a disastrous loss to Purdue in their Big Ten opener, while Iowa State handily defeated the Blue Demons at Depaul by 19 points in their most recent outing. 

Please join me as I take a closer look at the college basketball odds as I preview Iowa vs. Iowa State on Thursday, December 7 with my free college basketball picks.

Iowa vs Iowa State best odds

Iowa vs Iowa State picks and predictions

College sports produce some great rivalries, but the Iowa-Iowa State men’s basketball rivalry makes its 77th running tonight, and this Cy-Hawk matchup should be a good one.

What makes Cy-Hawk unique is the several local players on both rosters, including two players from each team who were high-school teammates who won an Iowa State High School basketball championship together before a district re-zoning broke up the band.

Iowa enters with three losses. The Purdue loss was tough because it got off to a slow start and never caught up. Its other two losses were by eight points at Creighton and by a dozen on a neutral court to Oklahoma. 

The Hawkeyes like to play fast, get to the basket, draw fouls, and make free throws. They rely on the triple for 22% of their points, but when they jack one up from downtown, the ball goes in at an above-average 35.3% clip. 

Iowa has covered the spread in four of their last five, and I believe they will do so again tonight. The Hawkeyes are an aggressive offense, but they take care of the ball, share the rock, and get to the cup. When they fire away, the Hawkeyes are better shooters from downtown, and if their ball-handlers can break the Cyclones' full-court press, Iowa will get transition buckets at the rim.

The Cyclones also have a few losses on their resume, but both are to teams with Top-100 KenPom teams. They play tenacious defense, get plenty of swipes, and average 22.8 points per game from turnovers. Iowa State has a better-than-average shooting team from inside the arc but is well below the 33% national average from downtown and is 2-3-0 against the spread over its last five.

Finally, the recent history of Cy-Hawk suggests a lopsided game that favors the home team, but I don’t see this one being lopsided at all. Iowa is coming off an ugly loss, and it doesn't want to face Michigan State on Sunday coming off consecutive blowout losses. Iowa is the more experienced squad and has covered four of their last five meetings against the Cyclones.

My best bet: Iowa +7 (-110 at DraftKings)

Iowa vs Iowa State same-game parlay

Iowa +7

Ben Krikke Over 15.5 points

Alternate total Under 156

+550 at DraftKings

For Iowa to cover the seven points, the Hawkeyes must do two things that correlate perfectly with this parlay that pays $550 for a $100 stake. 

Hawkeyes' leading scorer Ben Krikke must have a big game tonight. The Edmonton, AB native has cleared this scoring prop number in four of the Hawkeyes' last five. Krikke has a high usage rate, is a good creator off the ball, and should get to the cup enough times to clear this prop mark at the cup or from the charity stripe.

Iowa will also need to defend better than they did against Purdue. Zach Edey was a load for the Hawkeyes to handle, but this group is an above-average defensive side. Iowa has played four top-100 KenPom teams, which affected their No. 138 Pomeroy defensive ranking. Iowa State depends heavily on swipes and averages 22.5 ppg from turnovers. Iowa takes care of the ball very well, and without those freebies, paired with a lack of a three-point shooter, it slows down the Cyclone offense.

Finally, if Krikke goes for more than 16 points and Iowa finds a way to slow down the Cyclones, they will cover the +7-point spread, and we cash a big one. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Iowa vs Iowa State spread and Over/Under analysis

The recent history of this game suggests a blowout for the home team. The slimmest margin of victory since 2018 has been +14 points, and the betting odds reflect this.

Several US shops opened Iowa State as a -7.5 favorite, but that number has disappeared and been replaced by as many as -7 at DraftKings and as low as -6.5 at FanDuel, and everyone has -110 on the board.

Iowa +7 will likely be the best number, but I’m unsure how long that number will remain on the board. FanDuel opened Iowa State -6.5, and it hasn’t budged, but the numbers moved everywhere else and could fall in line with the NYC-based bookmaker number. 

The movement on the total has been interesting. DraftKings opened with the highest total on the board (158.5), but that number has dropped to 155.5 (-110). No other bookmaker had that much movement on the total, but the rest of the companies opened at 157.5 and saw dips as low as 155.5 (DraftKings). The consensus number is currently 155.5, and that is why I played the Under 156 in the SGP, as the number could dip even further.

My lean tonight is Iowa +260 at bet365. Iowa isn’t a bad team and has played a demanding schedule thus far. They take care of the ball, are good shooters, and coming off a bad loss to Purdue. Iowa State does many things well except shooting from downtown, and Iowa has an edge there. It’s worth a moneyline sprinkle to see if they can exploit that edge.  

Iowa vs Iowa State betting trend to know

The Cyclones are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Find more college basketball betting trends for Iowa vs. Iowa State.

Iowa vs Iowa State game info

Iowa vs Iowa State key injuries

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