As you ponder your March investments and look for a national title contender to back besides Duke, consider the Houston Cougars. They have run roughshod through one of the best conferences in the country and are only two wins away from a 19-1 Big 12 record.
The Kansas Jayhawks stressed Houston once, forcing double overtime in Lawrence on Jan. 25, so the Cougars should know not to overlook the Jayhawks tonight.
My Kansas vs. Houston predictions will risk significant juice as they lean into the Cougars’ best tendencies: wins. Read on for my college basketball picks ahead of this 9 p.m. ET tip on Monday, March 3.
Kansas vs Houston prediction
My best bet
Houston halftime/full-time moneylines (-225 at bet365)
My analysis
The Houston Cougars might be getting bored, and it would be hard to fault them if that is indeed the case.
Since losing at home to Texas Tech in overtime on Feb. 1, Houston has rattled off eight straight wins, including three over Top-30 teams, per Ken Pom. The Cougars have won those eight games by an average of 9.4 points, and while that may sound impressive, they have also been just 4-4 against the spread in this stretch.
Houston did go 3-0 ATS against three quality opponents comparable to the Kansas Jayhawks. And two of those games came on the road, unlike tonight.
But the more reliable trend is the Cougars' insistence on winning in the first half. They have gone 14-4 straight up in the first half in Big 12 play this season, including 7-1 since that loss to Texas Tech, which also included a four-point first-half deficit. A week before that, Houston had trailed by seven at the break at Kansas, surging in the second half to force overtime.
So the Cougars know not to overlook the Jayhawks, and they also know how devastating a halftime deficit can be to their opponents. Houston has gone 4-0 ATS in the first half in its last four, enjoying a double-digit lead at the break in three of those games.
And then boredom shows up.
The Cougars can not be trusted to finish a blowout strong, hence going just 7-7 ATS since Jan. 14. Instead, they can be trusted to take an early lead, and then turn that lead into an eventual win. Paying -225 for this same-game parlay may be uncomfortable, but the best defense in the Big 12 should assure this value.
Kansas vs Houston same-game parlay (SGP)
Houston 1H moneyline
Houston moneyline
Hunter Dickinson Over 14.5 points
Houston has the best offense and the best defense in the Big 12. In Kelvin Sampson’s system. The Cougars force more turnovers than anyone else in the conference, and those often lead to better offensive looks. But the drawback to that aggressive defense is the fouls committed.
Houston ranks No. 13 in the Big 12 in opposing free-throw rate, and no one in the Kansas rotation is better equipped to take advantage of that habit than 7-foot-2 Hunter Dickinson.
Dickinson has cleared this prop in three straight and 12 of 18 conference games. More pertinently, he has averaged 5.4 free-throw attempts since Jan 23.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Kansas vs Houston odds
Kansas vs Houston live odds
Kansas vs Houston opening odds
- Spread: Kansas +10.5 (-110) | Houston -10.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Kansas +350 | Houston -450
- Over/Under: Over 132.5 (-110) | Under 132.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Kansas vs Houston betting trend to know
Kansas has gone 4-10 ATS since Jan. 14. Find more college basketball betting trends for Kansas vs. Houston.
How to watch Kansas vs Houston
| Location | Fertitta Center, Houston, TX |
| Date | Monday, 3-3-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Kansas vs Houston key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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