One of college basketball’s most heated rivalries will renew for the 45th time on Saturday afternoon as the Louisville Cardinals and Kentucky Wildcats will meet in Rupp Arena for a little New Year’s Eve pre-party.
Louisville has been one of the worst teams in Division I basketball this season and is a dreadful 2-11 on the year. Kentucky has struggled to beat anyone outside of the “free wins” on the schedule this year and sits at 8-4. Will the Cards turn the tide on the Wildcats in this rivalry that has been recently one-sided?
Check out our college basketball betting picks and predictions for Louisville vs. Kentucky on Saturday, December 31 to find out.
Louisville vs Kentucky best odds
Louisville vs Kentucky picks and predictions
Since John Calipari joined the Kentucky Wildcats as head coach, he has completely dominated this rivalry with the Cardinals. Kentucky is 11-3 over Louisville with all three losses coming on the road.
Things might not get much better soon, as former Calipari assistant, Kenny Payne has had a rough go of his first season as head coach of the Cards. Louisville ranks 351st in points per game and 298th in points allowed per game out of 363 DI programs, with its lone two wins on the season over Western Kentucky and Florida A&M at home.
The Wildcats have had their struggles in meaningful games this year, but it is hard to put this Cardinals team in that category. Louisville is not only 2-11 overall, but also 2-11 against the spread. It has been double-digit underdogs five times this season and has only covered once in those five attempts. In the four failed cover attempts, the Cardinals lost by an average of 27.5 points.
On top of its struggles to score, Louisville is one of the worst rebounding teams in the nation. Its 32.5 rebounds per game ranks 316th nationally and that spells trouble against one of the best rebounding teams in the country. Kentucky averages 40.1 rpg, good for fourth in the nation.
Wildcats' fans are out for blood after their poor performance in recent weeks and they will want a massive victory over their hated rival. Fortunately, there should be plenty of opportunity to get that needed blowout victory over a team that is one of the worst in DI basketball.
Kentucky should be able to easily cover this big spread at home and get some momentum rolling into its SEC schedule.
My best bet: Kentucky -23.5 (-106 at FanDuel)
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Louisville vs Kentucky spread analysis
Kentucky’s offense leaves much to be desired, but it still ranks 63rd in the country in points per game at 78.4. Most of that is thanks to its athleticism against over-matched opponents, as it only averages 69.3 points per contest in its four losses.
Fortunately, it gets the chance to improve quickly against a team allowing 73.5 points per game. Louisville allows its opponents to shoot 46.4% from the field along with 9.8 offensive rpg. Not a great combo for going up against defending NPOY Oscar Tshiebwe.
Oscar may not be having the same type of season he had last year statistically, but he is still a double-double machine, averaging 15.8 points and 13.6 rebounds per game.
He has gotten a double-double in all but two games this season, and he'll certainly have no issue getting his way against a Cardinals' frontcourt that has only one player taller than 6-foot-8.
The favorite is 3-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings and the home team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these two rivals. The Cards are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 road games. Even though this is a big spread, talent is just too one-sided and the Wildcats will figure it out enough to get an easy win and cover.
Louisville vs Kentucky Over/Under analysis
The Cardinals are not only struggling to get wins but also to hit Over any totals. The Under is 10-2-1 in Louisville games this season and has only gone Over 140 total points four times this season. The Cardinals have eclipsed the 70-point mark just twice this year.
Kentucky struggles inside the 3-point line and at the free throw line, shooting 49.5% on 2-point field goals (243rd) and 66.1% from the stripe (311th). One of the few strengths the Cardinals have defensively is not allowing their opponents to get to the free-throw line. They also only allow 13.8 assists per game, which ranks third in the country.
Even though I do feel that Kentucky will win this game easily and cover a giant spread, that does not mean it will score a ton of points. This game is likely going to creep by and neither team is going to light up the scoreboard. A score around the likes of 75-50 in the Wildcats' favor seems likely to get both a Kentucky cover and go Under the total.
Louisville vs Kentucky betting trend to know
The Under is 5-1 in the Wildcats' last six home games. Find more College basketball betting trends for Louisville vs. Kentucky.
Louisville vs Kentucky game info
| Location: | Rupp Arena, Lexington, KY |
| Date: | Saturday, December 31, 2022 |
| Tip-off: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
Louisville vs Kentucky key injuries
Louisville: Zan Payne SF (Out).
Kentucky: C.J. Fredrick G (Questionable), Grant Darbyshire G (Questionable).
