The Champions Classic is one of the premier events on the early college basketball calendar, and this year it kicks off with a matchup between Kansas and Michigan State.
Kansas nearly blew a 20-point lead against North Carolina in their last game, while Michigan State has had more straightforward outcomes. Given both teams' ability to score, my prediction for Kansas vs. Michigan State leans toward a big performance from Sparty.
Check out my college basketball picks for Tuesday, November 12.
Michigan State vs Kansas prediction
My best bet
Michigan State team total Over 72.5 (-120 at bet365)
My analysis
It's a fresh start for Michigan State. Gone is Tyson Walker, who felt like he'd been playing for the Spartans for a decade. With that, gone is an unquestioned go-to guy and team leader. The steadying presence of AJ Hoggard has also left the program. It's a good thing they've brought in some talent.
Sparty hit the portal and made two great grabs. One of my favorites in the portal was one of those grabs in Frankie Fidler from Omaha. He is a bonafide bucket-getter and has made a solid start to the season, averaging 10 points across two games in a limited role. Historically, I've been down on Michigan State over the last few seasons, but I like this group. However, there will be some growing pains until an alpha emerges from this team. I don't trust it defensively here, nor for it to execute in high-pressure situations.
As I wrote about last week, something still has yet to click for Kansas from a connectivity standpoint. This was evidenced again when it allowed North Carolina to come back from a 20-point deficit in Lawrence and take a brief lead.
All that said, there are concerns for both of these teams that stop you from backing them from an ATS perspective, and I'm not going to do that. My best bet here is the Michigan State TT over 72.5.
It's funny because if Michigan State is to win this game, it has two routes. One of those is going nuclear from the three-point line, but the more likely one is playing lockdown defense and keeping the game in the 70s. So, this play is not necessarily conducive to Sparty winning or even covering, but given the predictive tempo and some of MSU's strengths, I can't pass it up.
PG Dejuan Harris is one of the best defenders in the sport, particularly on the perimeter; after that, there are tons of questions. The issues with Hunter Dickinson are always going to be the same. Do you let them play standard man-to-man defense and get picked apart on pick-and-rolls, or do you drop him and open up more of the floor for shooters? Whatever Kansas chooses here, Michigan State has enough firepower to eclipse a massive total, particularly in a game that should see around 75 possessions, as neither team will have a gigantic objection to the game being played in transition.
Michigan State has been effective at the rim against weaker competition over its last two games, but there's more validity in that because it's been a staple in Tom Izzo's career. Against North Carolina, Kansas allowed the Tar Heels to get back in the game partly due to 64% shooting at the rim. That came with virtually no true center on the floor for North Carolina. There's a concern about how young PG Jeremy Fears will manage to initiate the offense with Harris defending him, but even with that in mind, this total needs to be longer.
Michigan State vs Kansas same-game parlay
Michigan State team total Over 72.5
Kansas moneyline
We're getting a non-correlated boost on this, and, as I mentioned above, these two are somewhat correlated. State will score more the faster the tempo gets because of Kansas's transition defensive struggles, but from an entire game standpoint, it's probably not the chance of winning. I also have a significant trust factor in Harris's guard play over Fears late in the game.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Michigan State vs Kansas odds
Michigan State vs Kansas live odds
Michigan State vs Kansas opening odds
- Spread: Michigan State +6.5 | Kansas -6.5
- Moneyline: Michigan State +220 | Kansas -275
- Over/Under: Over 150.5 | Under 150.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Michigan State vs Kansas betting trend to know
Kansas has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 19 of their last 33 games (+2.95 Units / 8% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Michigan State vs. Kansas.
How to watch Michigan State vs Kansas
| Location: | State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Tuesday, 11-12-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 6:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Michigan State vs Kansas key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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