One of the best college basketball matchups of the weekend sees the Auburn Tigers travel to Houston to face the Cougars.
The Tigers made news Friday night when the team plane had to turn back due to “horseplay”, but there has been no word of punishment or suspension. Regardless, my Auburn vs. Houston predictions expect the Tigers to have their hands full against a Cougars team that defends as well as anybody in the country.
Let’s dive into my latest college basketball picks for Saturday, November 9.
Auburn vs Houston prediction
My best bet
Houston -5.5 (-105 at bet365)
My analysis
Houston returns four starters from one of the best teams in the country a season ago, and LJ Cryer is a contender for National Player of the Year. Milos Uzan also transferred in from Oklahoma, and his debut has Cougar fans excited as he nearly posted a triple-double in the blowout win over Jackson State.
Cryer, Uzan, and the rest of the Houston defense will be an early test for a rebuilt Auburn backcourt. The Tigers saw their season come to a disappointing end in March because of backcourt inconsistency, which put far too much pressure on Johni Broome to carry the team. It reared its ugly head in the Round of 64 defeat to Yale, as the Tigers shot just 7-for-20 from downtown and turned the ball over 14 times.
Auburn thrives under Bruce Pearl on getting out in transition and scoring easy buckets, but that's an area where Houston thrives at denying opportunities. They also have the length and size to not only give Auburn problems on the glass but also to make Broome uncomfortable. He’s likely to be matched up at times with JoJo Tugler, whose 7-foot-6 wingspan will be able to slow Broome down no matter where he sets up.
In the opener against Vermont, Pearl started Broome at the power forward position. It was a move designed to get him away from the constant double teams he saw a season ago, and to show off the outside game he’s spent the summer working on. It worked as he connected on two of his five 3-point attempts.
But as well as Auburn played, one thing that stood out was their lack of assists. Freshman guard Tahaad Pettiford came off the bench to drop four dimes in 19 minutes, but he was the only player with more than two assists.
Houston will limit Auburn’s second-chance opportunities, and the return of Ja’Vier Francis from injury gives the Cougars plenty of depth in what should be a physical game that may have a tight whistle. While this is technically a “neutral court” game, it’s being played in Houston and the Cougar fans will be filling up the building.
Kelvin Sampson is outstanding at limiting the damage the other team’s primary player can do, and there’s a possibility some players may get benched for Auburn as fallout from last night’s incident. Either way, Houston has the better team, the more favorable matchup, and the better backcourt.
I’ll take them to win by six or more points.
Auburn vs Houston same-game parlay
Houston -5.5
Auburn team total under 68.5
Auburn 1H team total Under 31.5
Auburn had an easy time against Vermont because it forced 16 turnovers, but that won’t be the case here.
The Tigers are going to be forced to operate in the half-court, and as good as Pettiford might become, it would be difficult to ask him to come into this environment and break down a defense as good as Houston’s. On top of that, Houston’s length on the perimeter will allow for switching on all screens, making the halfcourt battle even tougher.
That means the likes of Pegues are going to be tasked with doing what so many guards failed to do last season, and I can’t see him having success. Broome will do what he can, but Houston will force turnovers in this game and limit Auburn to just one opportunity per possession.
Houston suffocated Jackson State in its opener, holding the Tigers to just 13 points before the break. While I don’t expect Auburn to struggle that much, I also don’t see it turning into a shootout.
I’ll take Auburn to score fewer than 32 points before halftime while also failing to reach 69 points by the end of regulation — a mark only six teams reached last year, two of whom needed overtime.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Auburn vs Houston odds
Auburn vs Houston live odds
Auburn vs Houston opening odds
- Spread: Auburn +4.5 | Houston -4.5
- Moneyline: Auburn +165 | Houston -200
- Over/Under: Over 143.5 | Under 143.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Auburn vs Houston betting trend to know
The Cougars have covered the 1H spread in 23 of their last 37 games (+9.30 Units / 22% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Auburn vs. Houston.
How to watch Auburn vs Houston
| Location: | Toyota Center, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, 11-9-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPNU |
Auburn vs Houston key injuries
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