It’s time for the Second Round of the NIT as the San Francisco Dons host the Loyola Chicago Ramblers.
USF is without point guard Marcus Williams while the Ramblers lack a true point guard and it nearly came back to bite them in the First Round.
I’m betting that this will lead to a decrease in points with my Loyola Chicago vs. San Francisco predictions and college basketball picks at the Sobrato Center in San Francisco, California, on Sunday, March 23.
Who will win Loyola Chicago vs San Francisco?
The San Francisco Dons will survive and advance. This is one of the better teams in the NIT, finishing 13-5 in the WCC while losing to Gonzaga three times (twice in the regular season, once in the conference tournament) and St. Mary’s once (to go along with a victory over the Gaels). Those losses have aged exceptionally well — the WCC sent more teams to the Round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament than the ACC did, and the Zags just took mighty Houston to the final whistle. The Loyola Chicago Ramblers are hot (9-2 in their last 11), but this is a sizable step up in competition on the road.
Loyola Chicago vs San Francisco prediction
My best bet: Under 144.5 (-110 at bet365)
The big news surrounding the San Francisco Dons heading into postseason play was that they’d be without star guard Marcus Williams until further notice. That was a massive blow for the Dons, who would suddenly and shockingly have to adjust to life sans their top assist man (4.3 per game) and second-leading scorer (15.1).
They’ve fared pretty well since, going 3-0 ATS and 2-1 straight up in two WCC Championship games and one NIT game. The offense has chugged along, averaging 80.3 ppg and going 3-0 O/U. Still, those three games came against two heavily offensive-minded teams (Gonzaga and Washington State) and one that had no chance of matching up physically (Utah Valley).
The Loyola Chicago Ramblers represent a different challenge as a well-rounded team that can match up physically and won’t look to push the pace offensively. Drew Valentine’s squad ranks 57th in adjusted defensive efficiency since February 14 (BartTorvik) and 201st in adjusted tempo on the season (KenPom).
So far, USF hasn’t suffered the ill effects of being without the initiator of the offense, but one would think the signs will show eventually — especially in a tough matchup against a stingy defense. The Dons take a lot of 3-pointers (25.4 attempts per game) and thrive when those shots are falling, but the Ramblers typically try to run teams off the arc.
Chris Gerlufsen’s squad hasn’t been anything special offensively over the last month (133rd in adjusted efficiency) and has relied on tempo to go Over totals, but that approach is thrown into question in this matchup.
On the flip side, USF’s defense will be the best unit on the court according to the metrics (41st in adjusted efficiency since February 14). The Ramblers haven’t been anything special offensively (118th in adjusted efficiency) during that period.
If you watched Loyola’s opening-round win over San Francisco State, you know that they coughed up a sizable lead due to being unable to handle the ball pressure that the Spartans applied late in the game. USF possesses great athleticism and Gerlufsen is a bright coach, so you can bet he’ll have his team apply more ball pressure than is typical to disrupt an offense that lacks a typical point guard and will find passing lanes difficult to navigate.
While that could lead to an increase in turnovers and therefore fast break points, it’ll also likely have a mitigating effect by disrupting the Ramblers’ offensive flow for large swaths of the game.
Loyola Chicago vs San Francisco same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 144.5
Under 68 — 1H
San Francisco -5
There’s been some Loyola love in the market, pushing the line down from +6.5 at open to +5 at current. It’s easy to see why — the Ramblers have been one of the hottest teams in the country, going 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games. They rank 69th in BartTorvik since February 14, just six spots behind USF (63rd).
Allow me to explain why I’m going the other way. These teams met in December at a “neutral site” at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, with the Dons earning a 76-66 victory. This time around, they’ll have the benefit of playing at the Sobrato Center, where they are 17-0.
Loyola had a terrible performance from the line in the initial meeting, going 15-for-32 from the foul stripe. While they may shoot better this time around and make it a closer game, it’s also worth noting that they’re one of the worst foul-shooting teams in the nation, ranking 332nd with a 66.5% clip from the charity stripe.
The Dons have been trending heavily toward the First Half Under, cashing that ticket in 20 of their last 31 games. If they can disrupt Loyola’s offensive early like San Jose State did late, they could control the majority of this game and at home.
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Loyola Chicago vs San Francisco odds
Loyola Chicago vs San Francisco live odds
Loyola Chicago vs San Francisco opening odds
- Spread: Loyola Chicago +6.5 | San Francisco -6.5
- Moneyline: Loyola Chicago +228 | San Francisco -276
- Over/Under: Over 143 | Under 143
Odds courtesy of bet365
Loyola Chicago vs San Francisco betting trend to know
San Francisco is 4-7 O/U in its last 11 non-conference games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Loyola Chicago vs. San Francisco.
How to watch Loyola Chicago vs San Francisco
| Location | The Sobrato Center, San Francisco, CA |
| Date | Sunday, 3-23-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
Loyola Chicago vs San Francisco key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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