Marquette vs UConn Odds, Picks and Predictions: Huskies Sprint Out of the Gate

In the best weekend college basketball odds matchup, No. 4 Marquette takes a road conference trip to face off against No. 1 Connecticut. 

This is the first matchup of the season between the two. We know the story with the Huskies. They won the national championship last season and has looked perfectly primed to become the first back-to-back champion since Florida in the mid-2000s. 

Marquette has looked quite good in its own right. Winners of their last eight, the Eagles are hunting for a  No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. 

What's the best bet in this one? Find out with my college basketball picks and predictions for Saturday, February 17th.

Marquette vs UConn best odds

Marquette vs UConn picks and predictions

The elements that make this one up are all types of fun.

There's the Shaka Smart road underdog factor. The Marquette head coach has a way to get his teams to perform in these types of spots. Smart has covered at an impressive 67% clip as a road underdog. That's one of the best in Power Five. Trends are trends, and some may prescribe to them more than others, but a situational strength such as this shouldn't be discounted. Of course, there's the other aspect, and that's simply just how dominating UConn has been. It has one of the longest winning streaks in college basketball, and there's no argument that this has been the best team in the land since the first of the year.

"The games that we have coming up, the time of year we're in where it's championship time of year, you've got to be playing your best," UConn head coach Dan Hurley said. "You've got to be playing championship-level basketball; you can't have many holes."

You cannot put enough value on the continuity from last season into this season with the March experiences the Huskies have gotten. The returning minutes are there, and this team now has the returning minutes from last year that have been hardened by the things it went through a year ago. This team knows the intensity of these moments and how to react appropriately to them. They are all anecdotal things that can't precisely be quantifiable, but there's all the data in the world to suggest they matter a ton. With all of this in mind, I'm grabbing UConn to come out strong and taking them to cover the first half number of -3.5.

These Huskies have been some beast at home this season. They'll enter this game with an average first-half home margin of +12.9. That's the 12th-best in the nation and easily the best in the conference. It's not that Marquette has been a particularly bad team in road environments; it's more that it hasn’t faced too many difficult ones and fared well. Three of its five losses have come on the road. It lost by double digits when it went to Wisconsin earlier this year. When it went to Providence, it also lost by double digits. Those are two teams with an average first-half margin of eight or more, and two that easily covered first-half numbers.

On the floor, two elite offenses should succeed in the halfcourt against one another. But I'm worried most about Marquette's poor spot-up defense against UConn’s elite shooting. 

There isn't a more significant edge for either team in this matchup than that. Marquette's spot-up defense ranks in the Bottom 13% of college basketball and has allowed an eFG% of over 50%. Cam Spencer, Alex Karaban, and a few others are all deadly on spot-up sets and should be able to exploit this in the halfcourt. UConn is likely to control the pace of this game and do its best to keep it out of transition. While the Huskies have been deadly scoring there, Marquette's defense has also been elite. The Huskies will have more advantages in the halfcourt than their opposition and will want to control the pace to exploit that. I expect them to be successful, especially early on. 

Back the Huskies early in this matchup. They’re well equipped to meet the moment and have excelled in these situations more often than their opponent.

My best bet: UConn first half -3.5 (-110 +136 at DraftKings) 50% boost available

Marquette vs UConn same-game parlay

UConn first half -3.5

Alex Karaban Over 13.5 pts

+246 at DraftKings

This analysis is quite simple, as we're pairing our best bet with one of the angles we discussed above.

This Marquette team struggles to defend shooters, and one of the places it should struggle the most is when its bigs are forced to defend on the perimeter. Oso Ighodaro is perhaps the worst spot-up defender on the squad, allowing 41% shooting on such sets. Alex Karaban will expose this. Even at his size, he may be the best shooter on this Huskies team, and I expect him to show it today.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Marquette vs UConn spread and Over/Under analysis

I'm not sprinting to jump in front of the Shaka Smart road underdog witchcraft, but the Huskies hold many advantages here. Marquette hasn't shown the elite ability to defend like it needs to hang in these games, and until the Eagles do, it will be hard to back them.

My projections have UConn by 10 here. While I like backing them on the -6.5-point spread, I saw more value in backing them early. You can always look to attack live if the first half spread fails to cash. You'll get a better number than the live one. However, my strongest conviction about this game is that the Huskies come out more prepared to meet the moment, and that's the way I attacked this market. 

There is a slight lean to the over of 147.5, as I projected a number of 150. With that said, I'm passing on the pregame market. 

I'm curious how Marquette responds to being repeatedly forced to execute deep in the shot clock. I need to see it before I can back it to do the lifting it'll need to do here. With that said, the Huskies' team total is undoubtedly worth a look at anything below 77.5. UConn has scored over that number in two straight, and its offense is humming now.

Marquette vs UConn betting trend to know

Connecticut has hit the first half oneyline in 25 of its last 31 games (+13.80 Units / 10% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Marquette vs. UConn.

Marquette vs UConn game info

Marquette vs UConn key injuries

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