The Kansas Jayhawks look for a season sweep over their in-state rivals when they travel to Manhattan to face the Kansas State Wildcats on Saturday.
The Jayhawks rebounded from their epic collapse against Baylor with a dominant win over Iowa State, while the Wildcats survived late against Arizona State to secure a fourth-straight victory and get back to .500 on the season.
Our Kansas vs. Kansas State predictions and college basketball picks for February 8 key on one player who should find success from long range.
Kansas vs Kansas State prediction
My best bet
Max Jones Over 1.5 made 3-pointers (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
A key reason behind the four-game win streak for the Kansas State Wildcats has been an improvement beyond the arc, and Max Jones has been a key contributor to that uptick.
The Wildcats are averaging 42.7% on their 3-pointers over the last five games, during which time Jones has made 11 of his 19 attempts from beyond the arc.
That run has pushed his outside shooting percentage past 40% on the season. Now he returns home to Bramlage Coliseum, where he’s made nearly 45% of such shots — almost 10 percentage points better than what he’s shot on the road.
While the base metrics indicate that the Kansas Jayhawks defends the 3-pointer well, they’re somewhat misleading. The Jayhawks rank 15th in the Big 12 and 347th overall in defensive spacing, according to ShotQuality, but opponents are making just 27.6% of their attempts from downtown in conference play. That’s the lowest percentage in the conference.
But ShotQuality shows that number is far lower than it should be, especially given only one Big 12 team allows more open jumpers than the Jayhawks. And no team in the conference has posted a better open three rate than the 64.3% mark put up by the Wildcats. That makes this a prime spot to see some regression.
The Jayhawks are outstanding at protecting the rim, with Flory Bidunga and Hunter Dickinson both causing problems down low. They’ve posted the best 2-point defense in conference play, with a block rate of 13.2%. That means the Wildcats may need to rely a bit more on creating open looks from the outside versus attacking via backdoor cuts.
Kansas State made just six of their 26 triples in the first meeting with Kansas, and I anticipate a better showing here. Jones attempted seven treys in that game, connecting twice. I expect him to do the same here, although I doubt he’ll need as many attempts to make it happen.
Kansas vs Kansas State same-game parlay (SGP)
Max Jones Over 1.5 made 3-pointers
Zeke Mayo Over 2.5 assists
KJ Adams Under 7.5 points
The Jayhawks have posted the third-best assist rate in Big 12 play, and Zeke Mayo has been dishing the ball quite well of late. He’s notched at least three assists in three straight games and will get some extra opportunities to do so against a Kansas State defense ranked dead-last in the conference in open three rate.
That poor perimeter defense won’t help KJ Adams, who hasn’t attempted a single perimeter shot all season. Kansas State doesn’t allow many free throws, and they defend the rim fairly well.
Adams has struggled offensively this season, and averages less than seven ppg on the road, where he shoots just 40.9%.
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Kansas vs Kansas State odds
Kansas vs Kansas State live odds
Kansas vs Kansas State opening odds
- Spread: Kansas -4 | Kansas State +4
- Moneyline: Kansas -175 | Kansas State +148
- Over/Under: Over 141.5 | Under 141.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Kansas vs Kansas State betting trend to know
Kansas has hit the Under in 23 of their last 33 games (+12.00 Units / 33% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Kansas vs. Kansas State.
How to watch Kansas vs Kansas State
| Location | Bramlage Coliseum, Manhattan, KS |
| Date | Saturday, 2-8-2025 |
| Tip-off | 2:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Kansas vs Kansas State key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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