The Philadelphia Phillies travel to Atlanta on Tuesday night to open a three-game series against the NL East rival Braves at Truist Park.
Zack Wheeler hopes to continue his dominant start for the visitors, while Chris Sale looks to help the Braves pick up just their second win on the campaign.
Our Phillies vs. Braves predictions and MLB picks for Tuesday, April 8 breaks down why the Atlanta lefty’s strikeout total is an area bettors can target.
Phillies vs Braves prediction
My Phillies vs Braves best bet: Chris Sale Under 6.5 strikeouts (+139 at Caesars)
Chris Sale has pitched twice this season, going five innings each against the Padres and Dodgers. And while he’s looked solid, strikeouts haven’t been coming at the typical rate.
Opponents are hitting .500 off his four-seam fastball when put into play this season. The pitch is almost a full mile per hour slower this season than last, and he’s throwing it less as a result.
As a result, he’s showing the slider much more often in the early season. But the whiff rate on that pitch has gone down significantly, with opponents swinging and missing just 31.9% of the time compared to 42.7% in 2024.
There’s also been a noticeable decline in the vertical drop in his breaking ball. That’s likely attributable to a significant reduction in spin rate this season compared to last. And although he’s gotten hitters to chase his pitches at a higher rate this year, contact on those pitches has increased as well.
I’m projecting he’ll need to go into the seventh inning to get to seven strikeouts on Tuesday, neither of which I’m expecting to happen. That’s because the Philadelphia Phillies are showing tremendous discipline at the plate.
Since striking out 19 times on Opening Day — 13 of which came against MacKenzie Gore, who is tied for the league lead — the Phillies have struck out more than seven times in an entire game just once. Even with that outing included, they’re averaging just 7.6 Ks per outing.
They’ve been more selective, working the count more often in their favor. That’s led to the Phillies posting the second-best xBA and highest xSLG in the league.
I expect the Phillies to run up Sale’s pitch count and put balls in play. Sale won’t get past the sixth inning, and as a result won’t reach his strikeout total. At a price of +139 at Caesars for the Under on the alternate line of 6.5 Ks, I can’t pass on the value — especially with it sitting as low as +120 elsewhere.
Phillies vs Braves same-game parlay (SGP)
Chris Sale Under 6.5 strikeouts
Zack Wheeler Under 4.5 hits allowed
Phillies moneyline
Zack Wheeler has been dominant in his two outings thus far, allowing just five hits in 13 IP while striking out 18 hitters. He’s found just three barrels this season, and has posted an xBAA below the Mendoza Line.
Which is fitting, given current Braves are batting just .195 career with a .209 xBAA. The Atlanta Braves have the fifth-worst xBA and second-worst average of any club, and this won’t be the outing where Wheeler finally gets hit around.
Philadelphia is coming off a series win over the Dodgers, is getting timely hitting, and has a pitching staff ranked third in opponent xBA. Behind another strong showing from Wheeler, the Phillies will leave the Braves still searching for that second victory.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Phillies vs Braves odds
Phillies vs Braves live odds
Phillies vs Braves opening odds
- Moneyline: Philadelphia -105 | Atlanta -115
- Run line: Philadelphia +1.5 (-233) | Atlanta -1.5 (+192)
- Over/Under: Over 7 (-105) | Under 7 (-115)
Phillies vs Braves trend
The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 49 of their last 69 games at home (+28.20 Units / 37% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Braves.
How to watch Phillies vs Braves and game info
| Location | Truist Park, Atlanta, GA |
| Date | Tuesday, 4-8-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
| Phillies starting pitcher | Zack Wheeler (1-0, 1.38 ERA) |
| Braves starting pitcher | Chris Sale (0-1, 5.40 ERA) |
Phillies vs Braves latest injuries
Phillies vs Braves weather
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