There’s a ranked-on-ranked matchup in the Big 12 this Saturday as the No. 13 Texas Tech Red Raiders (18-4, 9-2 Big 12) hit the road to face the No. 20 Arizona Wildcats (16-6, 10-1 Big 12).
Both teams have trended toward the Over this season, but I’m looking the other way, as both offenses were stymied in the first matchup in Lubbock.
Read on for my Texas Tech vs. Arizona predictions and college basketball picks on Saturday, February 8.
Texas Tech vs Arizona prediction
My best bet
Under 149 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Saturday’s meeting between the Texas Tech Red Raiders and Arizona Wildcats is a big one for the regular season race in the Big 12. Arizona has a chance to create some separation in the standings — win, and it has a two-game lead for second place over third place Texas Tech in the conference standings.
With a lot on the line, I’m betting on this one being a tight, hard-fought contest that lends itself toward the Under.
These teams played in January when Texas Tech pulled away for a comfortable 70-54 victory in Lubbock. Another low-scoring contest like the first iteration isn’t guaranteed, but there are a few things about this matchup that point in that direction.
First off, the Wildcats have been putting up gaudy numbers offensively but are about to be tested for real once they begin the gauntlet that is their schedule to end the regular season. This game against TTU, vs. Houston, at Baylor, vs. BYU, at Iowa State, and at Kansas all still await.
Texas Tech walls off the three-point line defensively while also limiting looks at the rim, forcing opponents into 2-point jumpers (329th in mid-range attempt rate against, per Haslametrics).
Arizona is a poor 2-point jump-shooting team (206th in mid-range attempt rate, 154th in mid-range field goal percentage vs. the average opponent), so one can see why this defensive philosophy was so effective in the first meeting.
On the flip side, the Red Raiders are a good jump-shooting team and those looks could be there against an Arizona defense that allows those looks.
That being said, the Wildcats are superb at walling off the rim (fifth in near-proximity field goal defense vs. the average opponent, per Haslametrics) and typically avoid fouling, so easy offense will be hard to come by if the shots aren’t falling all game — especially against a team that contests shots with vigor.
Texas Tech has an 82-81 win over Houston this month that stands out as a sore spot when evaluating the Over. It’s worth mentioning that big man JT Toppin and coach Grant McCasland were ejected four minutes into that game, and it went to overtime.
This team wants to play slow (276th in adjusted tempo), part of why it has gone 2-5 O/U in its last seven games.
Arizona is 13-9 O/U but it's to be determined if it continues trending toward the Over once the schedule heats up and it plays tougher defenses. The Red Raiders rank 17th in adjusted defensive efficiency since the start of January, per BartTorvik, and will prove a tough test.
The Wildcats have been the 18th-worst team relative to expectation when stepping up in competition, per EvanMiya, so I’ll make them prove to me that the offense will remain a juggernaut in tough matchups.
Texas Tech vs Arizona same-game parlay (SGP)
Texas Tech +3.5
Under 149.5
It’s tough to bet on Texas Tech in this matchup as the spot is a good one for the Wildcats, looking to revenge the loss in the first matchup. Arizona is hot, winning five straight, and this is a good spot to gain some ground in the conference standings before the schedule toughens up.
Still, Texas Tech has been so good lately that I can’t ignore the Red Raiders any longer. They’ve been a cash cow, going 5-1 ATS in their last six games while notching wins over Arizona, Houston (on the road), and Baylor.
If the shots fall, Texas Tech can hang in this game. McCasland’s squad hasn’t had a disappointing effort in a very long time, and it's clear that it is one of the 10 best teams in the country right now.
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Texas Tech vs Arizona odds
Texas Tech vs Arizona live odds
Texas Tech vs Arizona opening odds
- Spread: Texas Tech +2.5 (-110) | Arizona -2.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Texas Tech (+125) | Arizona (-150)
- Over/Under: Over 150.5 (-110) | Under Under 150.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Texas Tech vs Arizona betting trend to know
Texas Tech is 2-5 O/U in its last seven games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Texas Tech vs. Arizona.
How to watch Texas Tech vs Arizona
| Location | McKale Memorial Center, Tucson, AZ |
| Date | Saturday, 2-8-2025 |
| Tip-off | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Texas Tech vs Arizona key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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