Neither the Utah Utes nor the UCF Knights have genuine postseason aspirations. The Knights won at home a couple of weeks ago against the Utes, buoyed by five players reaching double-digits in scoring.
My UCF vs. Utah predictions and college basketball picks for Tuesday, March 11 expect tonight’s leading scorer to be the part of the Utes’ rotation, just as was the case in late February.
UCF vs Utah prediction
Who will win UCF vs Utah?
Should Utah be a 2-point favorite? It was a 3.5-point underdog at Central Florida on February 23, losing 76-72. Since then, the Knights have gone 2-2 outright and 2-2 against the spread, while the Utes have gone 1-3 outright and 2-2 against the spread.
If either team should have been downgraded, it would be Utah. Furthermore, a homecourt adjustment to tonight’s neutral court would have suggested UCF should be favored by one point tonight.
Losing veteran guard Jordan Ivy-Curry hurts the Knights, but adjusting the spread by three points for him is aggressive. UCF should pull off an upset tonight, albeit as only a short ‘dog.
My best bet
Ezra Ausar Over 16.5 points (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
No one in the Big 12 is worse on the defensive glass than the Central Florida Knights are. Conference opponents tracked down 35.4% of possible offensive rebounds against the Knights. The gap between UCF’s defensive rebounding rate and the No. 15 team in the Big 12 — Arizona State at 32.8% — is greater than the gap between No. 15 and No. 9.
If wondering how the Knights have the second-worst defense in the Big 12, pay some attention to that failure to prevent second chances. Hand-in-hand with it, UCF ranks third-worst in the conference in opposing effective field goal percentage. Grabbing offensive rebounds tends to lead to an influx of shots at the rim, after all.
The Utah Utes are the wrong opponent to face with this weakness. The Utes rank No. 2 in the Big 12 in offensive rebounding rate, tracking down 34.7% of their misses. That strength is led by 7-foot-1 Lawson Lovering and 6-foot-8 Ezra Ausar. At least one of the two tends to be on the court throughout an entire game, each grabbing more than 10% of available misses when playing.
Ausar plays more and shoots more, scoring at least 18 points in four of his last six games, including 20 points at Central Florida last month. Guard Gabe Madsen actually led the Utes with 23 points in that loss, buoyed by going 5-of-9 from behind the arc. A 32.3% shooter from long range this season, that may not be replicated tonight.
But as long as there are offensive rebounds to be had against UCF, Ausar should fill the bucket.
UCF vs Utah same-game parlay (SGP)
Ezra Ausar Over 16.5 points
Ezra Ausar Over 6.5 rebounds
Central Florida moneyline
Ausar has snagged at least seven rebounds in five of his last 13 games. Tonight’s pace — UCF is the fastest team in the Big 12 — combined with the Knights’ failures on the glass should help Ausar make it six out of his last 14 games.
Combining his success with a Central Florida victory escalates the payout in this same-game parlay, but the UCF moneyline should be included simply due to the value of the number. If this game were a pick’em, perhaps leaving out that leg could be justified.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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UCF vs Utah odds
UCF vs Utah live odds
UCF vs Utah opening odds
- Spread: UCF +1.5 | Utah -1.5
- Moneyline: UCF +105 | Utah -125
- Over/Under: Over 156.5 | Under 156.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
UCF vs Utah betting trend to know
Utah has gone 1-4 outright in its last five games, turning a 7-8 Big 12 record into an 8-12 finish. Find more college basketball betting trends for UCF vs. Utah.
How to watch UCF vs Utah
| Location | T-Mobile Center, Kansas City, MO |
| Date | Tuesday, 3-11-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
UCF vs Utah key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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