Florida State and Syracuse will meet to finish the ACC Tournament opening round.
These two proud programs have had disappointing seasons and will look at the conference tournament as an opportunity to finish things with a bang. Florida State notched a double-digit win when the teams met in the regular season, but that was over two months ago. We expect a competitive matchup with plenty of points on the table.
Read on for my Syracuse vs. Florida State predictions and college basketball picks for Tuesday, March 11.
Syracuse vs Florida State prediction
Who will win Syracuse vs Florida State?
Handicapping any motivation edge is a slippery slope, but it's at least worth mentioning that Florida State is playing every game, knowing it could be their head coach's last game. With that said, I expect Florida State to win this one. The Seminoles have been a much more consistent group throughout the year, having a more steady backcourt and a head coaching edge.
My best bet
Jamir Watkins 5+ assists (+350 at bet365)
My analysis
There are plenty of spots to go here.
The first matchup saw 164 points, and neither defense has done much to improve since then, so naturally, I like the over. As noted above, I certainly expect the Florida State Seminoles to win the game, but the current spread is a bit much for my taste. I've gone elsewhere for value, and we have quite a nice price here in the prop market on Jamir Watkins to eclipse four assists.
Watkins finished the season playing his best basketball. In the finale against SMU, he scored 20 points, grabbed eight boards, and hit this assist number. The game before also saw a similar scenario and, again, saw him dish out five assists there. Just as crucial to his handicap is a rising usage rate for Watkins. The senior guard finished the season with a usage rate eclipsing 30% in five of his last six games. In addition, three of those games included an assist rate of over 30%, something he had only done twice before this season. There's no reason to suggest we go down here against a poor defense.
This matchup is also a positive one for Watkins to rack up the dimes. Syracuse Orange have really struggled against high-low sets with an effective big on the other side, and he's the primary facilitator in such sets. Just look at the last few games.
Against SMU, Florida State eclipsed over a point per possession on post-ups and high-low sets.
Against Virginia, they completed the same feat.
It was in these two games that Watkins had his highest assist percentage. Syracuse will come into this game ranking in the bottom 25% of basketball, defending both sets. I fully expect Watkins to take advantage of such a good advantage with his court vision.
Syracuse vs Florida State same-game parlay (SGP)
Jamir Watkins 5+ assists
JJ Starling Over 1.5 threes
We chose another player prop to pair with our best bet for this same-game parlay: JJ Starling 2+ threes.
This game should lend itself to plenty of open-court opportunities, an area where Starling thrives, allowing himself to get a rhythm. In the halfcourt, Florida State has allowed nearly a point per possession on attacks and kicks, in which Starling is usually the primary option. I was surprised to see this price at a very friendly -120 when my projections had it closer to -150.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Syracuse vs Florida State odds
Syracuse vs Florida State live odds
Syracuse vs Florida State opening odds
- Spread: Syracuse +3 (-110) | Florida State -3 (-110)
- Moneyline: Syracuse +140 | Florida State -165
- Over/Under: Over 152 (-110) | Under 152 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Syracuse vs Florida State betting trend to know
Syracuse has hit the Team Total Over in 18 of their last 32 games (+2.20 Units / 6% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Syracuse vs. Florida State.
How to watch Syracuse vs Florida State
| Location | Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC |
| Date | Tuesday, 3-11-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ACC Network |
Syracuse vs Florida State key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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