Two of the hottest teams in the Show square off as the Chicago Cubs (11-7) hit the road for a three-game series with the San Diego Padres (13-3) beginning Monday night at Petco Park.
Chicago is riding high after taking two of three from the Dodgers while the Padres have won four straight and have the MLB’s best record.
I’m bullish on Manny Machado’s player props with my Cubs vs. Padres predictions and MLB picks for Monday, April 14.
Cubs vs Padres prediction
My Cubs vs Padres best bet: Manny Machado Over 1.5 total bases (+120 at Caesars)
Manny Machado is off to a hot start for the San Diego Padres. After finishing with an OPS below .800 in back-to-back seasons, the 32-year-old is in vintage form with a .317/.379/.483 slash line (.862 OPS) through 60 plate appearances.
He performed very well at Petco Park a year ago with a 132 wRC+ (112 on the road), .282 BA (.268), and .811 OPS (.785). So far in 2025, those home-road splits have continued (159 wRC+ at home, 138 wRC+ on the road).
Chicago Cubs hurler Jameson Taillon takes the mound with a 6.06 ERA through three starts. The veteran ranks in the 20th percentile in xBA and the 24th percentile in xERA, so it looks unlikely that he will repeat his 3.27 ERA of a season ago.
The former second overall selection in the 2010 MLB Draft had stark home-road splits in 2024, seeing a bump in ERA (4.58 away, 2.18 home), WHIP (1.22 away, 1.06 home), opponent BA (.265 away, .224 home), and HR/9 (1.45 away, 0.89 home).
The big right-hander has primarily used a three-pitch mix against right-handed bats: four-seamer (41.5%), sweeper (32.9%), and cutter (20.7%).
The good news for Machado is that he crushes four-seamers (153 wRC+) and cutters (131 wRC+). He crushed the sweeper a year ago (.723 SLG, .412 wOBA), although the results were admittedly more mixed before that.
Taillon has altered his pitch mix. He threw his sinker 18.6% against righties a year ago but has only thrown it 4.9% this year. If he reverts to his former tendencies, Machado is a known punisher of sinkers (145 wRC+) and will make him pay.
There’s plus money on Machado recording 2+ total bases at home in a favorable matchup, and I’m buying. He’s notched 2+ total bases in five of his last six games, averaging 2.3 total bases in that span.
Caesars QuickPick: Our Cubs vs Padres same-game parlay (SGP)
Manny Machado Over 1.5 total bases
Dylan Cease Over 6.5 strikeouts
Padres moneyline
Dylan Cease has always been a pitcher who runs hot and cold. He’s been all ice (7.89 ERA) to start 2025 after getting blasted for nine earned by the Athletics his last time out, but the mercurial starter returns to the familiar confines of Petco on Monday.
Cease was superb at home in 2024 with a 3.03 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and 2.82 FIP. His underlying metrics aren’t cause to sound the alarm yet, so here’s betting he gets back on track against a Cubs team experiencing the Sunday Night Baseball hangover effect after beating the Dodgers 4-2 last night on the road.
The 29-year-old has recorded 7+ strikeouts in nine of his last 12 regular season starts at Petco Park.
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Cubs vs Padres odds
Cubs vs Padres live odds
Cubs vs Padres opening odds
- Moneyline: Chicago +145 | San Diego -161
- Run line: Chicago +1.5 | San Diego -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Cubs vs Padres trend
Manny Machado has recorded 2+ total bases in five of his last six games. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Padres.
How to watch Cubs vs Padres and game info
| Location | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date | Monday, 4-14-2025 |
| First pitch | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | MARQ, padres.tv |
| Cubs starting pitcher | Jameson Taillon (1-1, 6.06 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher | Dylan Cease (1-1, 7.98 ERA) |
Cubs vs Padres latest injuries
Cubs vs Padres weather
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