Merrimack vs Fairleigh Dickinson Odds, Picks and Predictions: Warriors End Year on a High Note

It's awkward when Merrimack and Fairleigh Dickinson meet on Tuesday for the Northeast Conference Tournament Championship. Usually, a conference championship game would mean an NCAA Tournament bid is up for grabs.

But unfortunately, that's not the case here. Because of the NCAA's rules on transitioning from Division II to Division I, Merrimack is ineligible to make the tournament.

Merrimack comes into this one off a regular-season championship. The team hasn't been the best team in the conference this year, and it's deservedly playing in this game. It's coming off a 10th straight victory with a defeat of Sacred Heart.

Fairleigh Dickinson arrives here off a 20-point thumping of St. Francis. The school finished second in the conference during the regular season with a record of 10-6. It last faced Merrimack about a month ago, recording a seven-point win.

What's the best bet for this one? Find out in our free college basketball picks and predictions for Merrimack vs. Fairleigh Dickinson.

Merrimack vs Fairleigh Dickinson best odds

Merrimack vs Fairleigh Dickinson picks and predictions

This is the biggest game in school history for the  Merrimack Warriors, and it comes on their home court against an opponent with diminished motivation. 

The Fairleigh Dickinson Knights won the last two meetings between these teams, and one involved a second-half comeback. The story was easy to discern, as Merrimack boasted the better scheme, but the Knights' athleticism eventually took over.

I'm banking on Merrimack overcoming that after seeing the Knights several times now, because from an X's and O's perspective, Merrimack holds the edge.

Dickinson has struggled against zone defenses, with the school's numbers dropping from scoring on about 43% of its possessions against man-to-man defenses to roughly 39% against the zone. The Knights will see a good amount of it today. Merrimack plays plenty of zone, and it was effective in spurts against Dickinson over the first two meetings. The Warriors have played zone for nearly 90% of their possessions, holding opponents to just 38% from the field.

On the other side of the ball, Merrimack's offense holds several advantages, but one stands out as the most important on Tuesday. The Knights are going to give up open looks, as their spot-up defense has easily been the biggest issue for this team all season. They've allowed an effective field-goal percentage of 52% to spot-up shooters, ranking in the bottom 15% of college basketball.

Merrimack's offense isn't dominating, but it boasts enough talent to make the opposition pay. Devon Savage and Javon Bennett are two players to key on Tuesday. Both have shot around 40% on spot-up sets in 2022-23, indicating they're getting good looks. If these two produce a quality game, Merrimack should be able to handle business here.

You won't often see a team lose twice to an opponent in the regular season and then turn around to be the favorite in the postseason against that same foe. However, that's what we have here, and the home atmosphere and the situational aspect make the difference in this spot.

Back the Warriors.

My best bet: Merrimack -4 (-110 at bet365)

Merrimack vs Fairleigh Dickinson moneyline analysis

We've talked all season long about betting the spot in college basketball, and you couldn't find a better one than this. The Knights have nothing to play for other than a conference title, which pales in comparison to the other side.

Merrimack knows that no matter what happens, this will be the last game of its season. On the other hand, Fairleigh Dickinson knows that a week from now, it will appear in the Round of 64 regardless.

You can't quantify what that means exactly, but it gives Merrimack a significant boost.

Merrimack vs Fairleigh Dickinson Over/Under analysis

I'm inclined to take a look at the Under here.

Neither of these teams has a path to easy offense. For Merrimack, it's predicated on jump shooting which can come and go. When it comes to Fairleigh Dickinson, it's predicated on executing against a defensive setup that has struggled throughout the season.

At this point of the season, you are what you are, and I'm not expecting Dickinson to magically turn into a good offense against zones. That said, I expect you'll get a better number if you live bet this game.

The magnitude of the moment could certainly make Merrimack come out nervous, but I'm banking on the opposite. I'll look to grab the Under on an in-play wager after the first initial scoring burst comes from Merrimack. 

Merrimack vs Fairleigh Dickinson betting trend to know

The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these schools. Find more college basketball betting trends for Merrimack vs. Fairleigh Dickinson.

Merrimack vs Fairleigh Dickinson game info

Merrimack vs Fairleigh Dickinson key injuries

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