In its chase to win the Big Ten regular season crown, Michigan State desperately needs a win as Tom Izzo looks to break Bob Knight’s all-time conference wins record, but the Spartans take on an Illinois team with one of the country’s best offenses.
Given the Illini’s ability to score at a high and the Spartans' needing to put up 80 to win the last time these two played, and my Michigan State vs. Illinois predictions are expecting a shootout to take place at State Farm Center.
Read on for my college basketball picks for Saturday, February 15.
Michigan State vs Illinois prediction
My best bet
Over 157 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The last time these two teams played on Jan. 19, the Michigan State Spartans won 80-78 at home. Despite their defense-first mentality, Tom Izzo’s squad had to change its style of play to keep up with the Illinois Fighting Illini and take home the win.
If Izzo plans on breaking Knight’s record tonight, I think the Spartans will need to do much of the same on the road, especially with the recent play of Kasparas Jakucionis. The freshman put up just three points in nine minutes before fouling out the last time around, there’s almost no way that happens again.
The future NBA lottery pick has been the catalyst for an offense that’s sixth in the country in PPG (85.1), 12th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, and 13th in the country in adjusted tempo, per KenPom.
Illinois plays fast-paced basketball, so they’re first in Big Ten in both PPG (82.8) and field goal attempts per game (65.5).
Between the freshman trio of Jakucionis (16 PPG), Tomislav Ivisic (13.1 PPG), and Will Riley (11.9), plus veteran Kylan Boswell (11.5 PPG), the Illini simply have too much firepower for even a defense as strong as Michigan State.
That’s why Illinois has managed to go 11-4 betting the Over in its last 15 games, but to get there against Sparty, Michigan State’s talent will need to take advantage of Brad Underwood’s less-than-stellar defense.
The Illini are eighth in Big Ten play in points allowed (76.3) and give up the most 2-pointers per game (21.7).
That should benefit a Michigan State team that’s 17th in the country in twos per game (21.8) and has three different players - Jaden Atkins, Coen Carr, Jase Richardson - putting up more than 2.5 twos per game and shooting better than 52% inside the arc.
With an offense that’s 30th in the country in adjusted efficiency, the Spartans definitely have enough scoring talent to take advantage of an inconsistent Illinois defense, just like they did the first time around.
Michigan State vs Illinois same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 156.5
Kasparas Jakucionis Over 17.5 points
Jeremy Fears Jr. Over 4.5 assists
Jakucionis is living up to the buzz of being a top-five pick in the upcoming NBA draft. The Lithuanian guard is top 15 in the Big Ten in PPG and has exploded as of late with back-to-back 24-point games.
On the season, he’s scored 18-plus in 12 of 23 games, which includes going Over 17.5 in six of his last 10. So if Michigan State is going to keep up, they’ll need to rely on point guard Jeremy Fears Jr. to keep the offense humming.
The sophomore is third in the Big Ten in assists per game (6.0) and has Michigan State ranked first in Big Ten play in assists per game as a team (18.1). That pass-heavy approach should come in handy against an Illinois program that’s 11th in the Big Ten in assists allowed (13.0).
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Michigan State vs Illinois odds
Michigan State vs Illinois live odds
Michigan State vs Illinois opening odds
- Spread: Michigan State +6 (-110) | Illinois -6 (-110)
- Moneyline: Michigan State (+205) | Illinois (-250)
- Over/Under: Over 157 (-110) | Under 157 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Michigan State vs Illinois betting trend to know
Illinois has hit the game total Over in 24 of its last 39 games (+8.55 Units / 20% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Michigan State vs. Illinois.
How to watch Michigan State vs Illinois
| Location | State Farm Center, Champaign, IL |
| Date | Saturday, 2-15-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Michigan State vs Illinois key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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