Michigan State vs Wisconsin Odds, Picks and Predictions: Walker Carves Up Badgers' Defense

It's an old-school Big Ten matchup when the Michigan State Spartans travel to Madison to face off with the Wisconsin Badgers.

Wisconsin is coming into this game off a loss against Illinois. The Illini handed them a double-digit defeat, but watching the game, it felt more soundly than that. The loss broke a six-game winning streak for the Badgers, and they'll come into this matchup with just three losses.

I had low preseason expectations for Michigan State, and they've already exceeded them. Sparty has four losses, but they've already been hugely competitive in most games and already have wins against Kentucky and Michigan this season. They come into this game off of that Michigan win, with the two teams combining for just 112 points.

Where does the betting value lie in this matchup? Find out in our college basketball picks and predictions for Wisconsin vs. Michigan below.

Michigan State vs Wisconsin best odds

Michigan State vs Wisconsin picks and predictions

It's tricky to talk about this game without knowing the status of Tyler Wahl. The senior is the lynchpin of the Badgers' offense, the leading scorer, and by any objective measure, the best player on the team.

He has yet to practice this week after missing the Illinois game due to an ankle injury. In conference play, Wisconsin is -3 without Wahl on the court and -4 in clutch time without him on the court. However, with this matchup, his absence is more important than those metrics can detail.

Given that Wahl has not practiced all week, we're going to proceed like he's not playing. Of course, if he sees the court, then this handicap becomes a bit different. However, we're rolling with a player prop, so hopefully, that has a minimum effect vs. what the alternative plays could have given.

The weak point of this Wisconsin defense comes in defending the pick-and-roll. We're doing it here just like we exploited weak screen defense in UNC-Notre Dame. Wisconsin's pick-and-roll defense is ninth in the Big Ten and grades out around average nationally.

The problem — a big problem at that — is that if Wahl can't go, Wisconsin loses its best pick-and-roll defender. So often, you see teams' bigs exploited in these situations, especially in college basketball.

That's not the case with Wahl; he's been exceptional in drop coverage and sets in the Top 2 percentile as the primary defender in these sets. Without him, something that's already a weakness becomes more of one. We're looking at Tyson Walker to exploit that.

Walker has raised his game in some of the higher-profile matchups on Michigan State's schedule. See his 21-point performance against Alabama and a 22-point performance against Villanova for some strong examples. He's also thrived in games against opponents that struggle in pick-and-roll defense. Here's a break-down of his 20+ point performances this season:

He scored 21 points against Nebraska (fifth in the Big Ten in PnR defense), 21 points against Alabama (12th in the SEC), and 22 against Villanova (second-to-last in the Big East).

Walker has gone over this total in eight of 15 games this season. That says the raw probability of this should be priced around +100, which equates to a 50% chance of happening. However, looking deeper at the matchup and the type of defenses he's had success against, you'll quickly see that -115 is a more than a fair price.

I like Walker's matchup tonight if Tyler Wahl is on the court, but I love it if he isn't. I won't bet this yet without his status known, but his presence won't affect if I have a bet; instead, just the amount of the bet. 

My best bet: Tyson Walker Over 12.5 points (-115 at DraftKings)

Michigan State vs Wisconsin spread analysis

Without Tyler Wahl going, I lean toward Michigan State and it's purely a numbers thing. Factoring in homecourt for the Badgers, I make them around -2.5 point favorites with a fully healthy team.

Wahl is good for 3 to 3.5 points in essentially any game, but his presence in this matchup is even more critical for some of the reasons I outlined above.

These are very even teams, and typically, the edge you'd give with Wisconsin being at home is completely removed without Wahl on the floor. I'll look to bet Sparty if we get confirmation that he isn't playing.

Michigan State has been a nice bet this season. They've covered in five of their previous six games and four consecutive times against a team with a winning record. Meanwhile, Wisconsin is 0-4 ATS in its past four games. 

Michigan State vs Wisconsin Over/Under analysis

I don't have much of a feel for this total. My projections made it around 124.5, which is where it sets at most books. I'd lean to the Under because both teams' offensive advantages are limited. However, there's not much conviction, and I won't be placing a wager on it.

With that said, the Under trends are relatively prominent in this matchup. For Michigan State, the Under has hit in four straight games following a win and in five of its last six overall.

For Wisconsin, the Under has hit in five straight midweek games. Both teams allow under a point per possession and both are hard-nosed solid defensive teams. With that comes a low total, and while I don't have a personal opinion on a side, there are definite signals that point to the Under.

Michigan State vs Wisconsin betting trend to know

Wisconsin is 0-4 ATS in its last four games. Find more College basketball betting trends for Michigan State vs. Wisconsin.

Michigan State vs Wisconsin game info

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