The Arkansas Razorbacks are fresh off dispatching the Kentucky Wildcats in coach John Calipari's homecoming game, but oddsmakers are skeptical that they'll string wins together when they visit the Texas Longhorns at Moody Center on Wednesday night. Tipoff comes your way at 9:00 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
My college basketball picks believe that defense will have the upper hand for both sides on February 5.
Arkansas vs Texas prediction
My best bet
Under 142 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Haslametrics predicted total for this game is 144.4, while BartTorvik checks in at 142.41. I'm much more in line with the latter projection based on recent trends for both the Arkansas Razorbacks and the Texas Longhorns.
While Arkansas did drop 89 points in an emotionally-charged tilt with Kentucky, it must be noted the Wildcats are 112th in KenPom's defensive efficiency ratings. Their turnstile defense was at it again last night, as the unit allowed 98 points to Mississippi.
Texas' defense is a much more respectable 36th in defensive efficiency. The Longhorns held LSU to a mere 58 points when last seen, yet that game saw a run of four straight Unders snapped as Texas scored 89 points.
The Longhorns' eFG% vs. the Tigers was 64.1%, by far their highest output since conference play began in earnest. Their second-highest output in this department over their last nine games was a full 10 points lower.
These programs profile similarly on offense, as neither team is keen to play at a fast pace (Arkansas is 120th while Texas is 201st at Haslametrics) but take high-quality shots, particularly at the rim. However, these defenses are both built to stop this kind of attack.
The Razorbacks are 34th in FG% vs. the average opponent and 33rd in near-proximity percentage (NP%), but the Longhorns counter that on defense as they rank 38th and ninth in the corresponding categories.
It's the same story on the other side of the ball, with Texas ranking 25th in FG% and 30th in NP% vs. the average opponent, while Arkansas' defense is 54th and 29th.
Arkansas vs Texas same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 142.5
Texas moneyline
Zvonimir Ivisic Over 10.5 points
While I don't believe Texas will run Arkansas out of the gym, especially since I see this game playing out in a low-scoring fashion, I still think the Longhorns are a good bet to come away with the outright victory.
The Razorbacks are just 2-6 SU in 2025, with a narrow win over mediocre Georgia being their only triumph prior to upsetting Kentucky. The letdown angle is very much in play here.
Texas may be only 4-5 SU in 2025, but they've punched above their weight in losses to Auburn, Tennessee, and Mississippi, picking up the cover as underdogs in each instance.
Let's juice up this SGP with a reverse-correlation play and back Arkansas' Zvonimir Ivisic to tally at least 11 points.
Ivisic is one of several Razorback players picking up extra minutes since Boogie Fland went down with a season-ending injury four games ago. He's been much more trigger-happy from deep in this span, draining nine of 22 attempts (40.9%), but the 7-foot-2 Croatian can score the ball in multiple ways.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Arkansas vs Texas odds
Arkansas vs Texas live odds
Arkansas vs Texas opening odds
- Spread: Arkansas +8 | Texas -8
- Moneyline: Arkansas +268 | Texas -329
- Over/Under: Over 144 | Under 144
Odds courtesy of bet365
Arkansas vs Texas betting trend to know
Arkansas has played heavily to the Under since the start of 2025, going 2-6 O/U in their last eight games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Arkansas vs. Texas.
How to watch Arkansas vs Texas
| Location | Moody Center, Austin, TX |
| Date | Wednesday, 2-5-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
Arkansas vs Texas key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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