The No. 7 Purdue Boilermakers (18-5, 10-2 Big Ten) look to create some separation atop the Big Ten standings as they host the USC Trojans (13-9, 5-6 Big Ten) on Friday night.
Matt Painter’s squad is red hot, winning nine of its last 10 games, while Eric Musselman’s Trojans have alternated wins and losses for its last five outings.
See why I’m taking the Over in a game between two top-20 offenses since the start of January with my college basketball picks and predictions for USC vs. Purdue on Friday, February 7.
USC vs Purdue prediction
My best bet
Over 146 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Purdue Boilermakers likely give a strong performance on Friday night with the opportunity to create some ground atop the conference standings after Michigan State’s loss to UCLA on Tuesday.
Matt Painter’s squad has scored at least 79 points in all but two of its 12 home games, and the added motivation should mean they light the scoreboard up again.
Braden Smith has been among the nation’s best point guards, averaging 16.4 points and 8.6 assists per game. He forms a dynamic duo with forward Trey Kaufman-Renn (18.7 ppg), the likes of which opposing defenses have been helpless to stop.
The Boilermakers rank seventh in adjusted offensive efficiency since the start of January, per BartTorvik. They’re proficient from all three levels of the floor, making them somewhat matchup-proof.
The USC Trojans don’t appear to have the defensive chops to stop this train. They rank 89th in adjusted defensive efficiency and don’t offer much resistance at the rim (161st in near-proximity field goal defense, per Haslametrics).
I considered taking Purdue against the spread due to these factors, but USC’s offense has been performing well enough that I opted for the total instead.
The Trojans rank 17th in BartTorvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency since the start of January, scoring 70 or more points in five of their last six games.
Leading scorer Desmond Claude is questionable with an injury, but his team still managed 75 points without him at Northwestern last time out.
Both teams have trended heavily toward the Over this season — USC is 16-6 O/U and Purdue is 13-9-1 O/U. The Boilermakers have cashed five straight Overs at Mackey Arena, and I’m betting on a sixth Friday night.
USC vs Purdue same-game parlay (SGP)
Purdue -12.5
Over 146.5
Purdue has been dominant, covering the spread in eight of its last 10 games. Facing a mediocre USC team with defensive issues and potentially without its best player, this seems like a good spot for the Boilermakers to keep rolling and gain some ground in the Big Ten race.
The Trojans haven’t played poorly on the road lately, picking up a 10-point win at Illinois, a five-point win at Nebraska, and falling by just two points at Northwestern sans Claude.
Still, facing Purdue at Mackey can be a different animal. The Boilermakers recently demolished a good Michigan team 91-64 at home and have seven double-digit home victories.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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USC vs Purdue odds
USC vs Purdue live odds
USC vs Purdue opening odds
- Spread: USC +13.5 (-110) | Purdue -13.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: USC (+650) | Purdue (-1000)
- Over/Under: Over 147.5 (-110) | Under 147.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
USC vs Purdue betting trend to know
Purdue is 5-0 O/U in its last five home games. Find more college basketball betting trends for USC vs. Purdue.
How to watch USC vs Purdue
| Location | Mackey Arena, West Lafayette, IN |
| Date | Friday, 2-7-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
USC vs Purdue key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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