NC State vs Duke Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Wolfpack Go for Broke in First Half

The North Carolina State Wolfpack have fought their way to the quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament odds as a No. 10 seed and find their stiffest challenge — and an old in-state rival — waiting for them on Thursday.

The Wolfpack battle the No. 2 Duke Blue Devils in Washington D.C., with conference tournament odds installing the Dukies as double-digit favorites after enjoying an automatic bye to Round 3. Duke is currently +2,500 in the March Madness odds while NC State is a long shot just to make the field.

Duke and NC State met just last week, with the Blue Devils taking a 79-64 win in Raleigh as 6-point road chalk. That game came on a tight turnaround for the Wolfpack, who played at North Carolina just 48 hours earlier.

North Carolina State is once again facing a daunting schedule spot, playing its third game in three days after beating Louisville and Syracuse in the first two rounds of the ACC tournament.

I size up the spread and Over/Under total for this all-North Carolina clash and give my best college basketball picks and predictions for NC State vs. Duke on Thursday, March 14.

NC State vs Duke best odds

NC State vs Duke picks and predictions

I noted coming into the ACC tournament that the North Carolina State Wolfpack were undervalued in the market due to their poor finish to the season. NC State entered the postseason on a four-game losing skid and had only two wins in its previous eight games. 

What wasn’t being accounted for was a schedule that put NC State on the road in five of those eight games and saw the Wolfpack play at UNC, versus Duke, and at Pitt in a stretch of eight days to finish the calendar.

This is a veteran-heavy team with solid options in seniors D.J. Horne and D.J. Burns. And while this will be another tough schedule challenge for the Wolfpack, playing their third game in three days, NC State was able to rest those stars thanks to the blowout win over Syracuse yesterday.

Burns logged only 24 minutes while Horne played 20 minutes off the bench after missing Round 1 with a leg injury. The Wolfpack will at least have plenty of gas in the tank in the opening 20 minutes today.

Duke, which runs one of the slower tempos in the ACC, has a bad habit of slower starts this season. The Duke Blue Devils average just 36.9 points per first half on the year with an average 1H margin of victory of +6.1 points per game. 

Duke was either losing or ahead by four points or fewer at the halftime break in six of their final 11 games of the season, including a 33-30 edge over NC State in Raleigh on March 4. The Pack covered that 1H line with NC State sitting between +3.5 and +4 for the first half.

Game models are calling for a closer contest than the oddsmakers expect, with projections ranging from a 5.5-point to 10-point Blue Devils win, with the bulk of forecasts at nine points or fewer. 

I’m less confident in NC State to keep things tight in the second half, when the Blue Devils tend to find another gear and the tournament schedule will take its toll on the Wolfpack. Instead, I’ll look to the derivative markets to focus on the first 20 minutes.

The Blue Devils have been sitting since losing a huge season finale against rival North Carolina at home last Saturday, leaving them with a five-day gap between games. The Wolfpack are already in the “tourney mindset” and I expect them to throw everything they have left at Duke in the opening 20 minutes tonight.

My best bet: NC State 1H +6.5 (-110 at bet365)

NC State vs Duke same-game parlay

NC State 1H +6.5

Duke moneyline

Kyle Filipowski Over 0.5 made 3s

+275 at bet365

The Wolfpack leave it all on the floor in the first half, with Horne and Burns still having gas in the tank thanks to a one-sided win in Round 2.

The Blue Devils may get a scare, but they’ll pull out the win and advance to the semis.

Kyle Filipowski won’t want to bang with Burns inside and will stretch the Wolfpack’s “Dancing Bear” with his outside shooting touch.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

NC State vs Duke spread and Over/Under analysis

The Wolfpack avoided an upset against Louisville in Round 1 and laid the smack down on Syracuse in Round 2, setting up this date with Duke. Books opened the Blue Devils as 10-point favorites and that spread has climbed as high as -11.5 on Thursday morning.

According to Covers Consensus, 57% of early picks are taking all those points with NC State.

The Wolfpack looked a little shaky in the first-round matchup with Louisville, especially since leading scorer D.J. Horne was a last-second scratch after getting injured in the regular-season finale.

Horne returned to action on Wednesday, coming off the bench and sparking a strong second half for NC State, which cruised to a 48-33 finish in the final 20 minutes that allowed coach Kevin Keatts to rest some of his key players.

North Carolina State closed conference play with one of the most daunting schedules, playing five of their final eight on the road and taking on North Carolina, Duke, and Pitt (three of the ACC’s top four seeds) in a span of eight days.

The tightest turnaround was a 48-hour window between visiting UNC and hosting the Blue Devils on March 4. The Wolfpack was able to hang with the Dukies for the first half, but gassed out when the Blue Devils turned up the intensity in the closing 20 minutes (lost 46-34 in 2H).

That’s been Duke’s M.O. during conference play: slow starts, strong finishes. The Blue Devils average just under 37 points in the first half before hitting their stride for 43.3 points in the closing frame.

It’s provided some sweats from loyal Blue and White bettors, but Duke has been a solid wager in the second half of ACC play, closing out the calendar with an 8-1 ATS run before losing at home to UNC in the season finale — a game that bumped Duke to the No. 2 seed.

Thursday’s total opened at 150 points and has slimmed to as low as 148, with Covers Consensus showing 55% of bets on the Under.

North Carolina State’s offense exploded in the win against Syracuse, but the final score still finished Under the closing total of 150.5 points. The Wolfpack have gone Under in three of their last five, including the loss at Duke on March 4.

The Blue Devils are 13-18 Over/Under on the season and have stayed Under the closing total in eight of their last 10 games. Duke is 4-9 O/U away from Cameron Indoor this season (road/neutral).

NC State vs Duke betting trend to know

North Carolina State has covered the 1H spread in 10 of its last 16 games away from Raleigh (+3.05 units). Find more college basketball betting trends for NC State vs. Duke.

NC State vs Duke game info

NC State vs Duke key injuries

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