It’s another rivalry edition of one of the most hatred-filled rivalries in sports when Louisville travels an hour east to face Kentucky.
It’s a new era for both schools with two new coaches, Mark Pope and Pat Kelsey. The two eras have started differently. Pope and Co. could have dreamed of a better start than they’ve gotten, notching wins over Gonzaga and Duke.
Things have been more mixed for Kesley, who faced an early rash of injuries to three scholarship players. The Cardinals have two nice wins over Indiana and West Virginia, but are still searching for a truly great one – they’ll have another opportunity to get that here as we dive into my Louisville vs. Kentucky predictions.
Read on for my college basketball picks for Saturday, December 14.
Louisville vs Kentucky prediction
My best bet
J’Vonne Hadley Over 0.5 threes (+105 at bet365)
My analysis
Storylines abound here.
Will Lamont Butler, Kentucky’s mega defensive stopper, play after being sidelined for the last one and a half Wildcats games? Butler’s impact will always be felt on the floor, but given the offensive-focused perspective of both teams, it could mean more in this matchup.
Can Louisville strike a balance between learning how to play shorthanded and playing fast? The Cardinals looked the part for roughly 30 minutes in their first ACC home game against Duke, and then it all unraveled. Anecdotally, Louisville looked relatively gassed down the stretch, in large part due to multiple injuries that have made it have only seven real contributors available. Louisville wants to play fast, but can they sustain that?
These are two among many storylines, but I’ll focus on one in particular for my best bet: Louisville’s massive looming positive shooting regression and Kentucky’s shot luck against open shooters.
There’s an interesting convergence of things in this matchup. According to ShotQuality, Louisville is third nationally in adjusted shot quality and among the leaders in the country in those due for positive shot regression. Add in a fact like Kentucky allowing just 27% three-point shooting on unguarded shot attempts – something that is not close to sustainable – and the handicap becomes incredibly difficult. It’s forced me to stay away from a side and head to the prop market for my best bet. I’m taking J’Vonne Hadley to make at least one or three at an attractive plus-money price.
Hadley’s usage has soared since the Louisville rotation took significant injury hits, and it’s to a degree that oddsmakers haven’t fully captured yet. Consider this: Hadley took four total threes in his first three games of the season with a healthy rotation. He eclipsed that number in one game against Duke. The sure volume of his shooting increase gives this value. It also certainly doesn’t hurt that Kentucky has recently struggled to defend these tweener wing/guard-type combos.
It was evident in their last game against Colgate when Parker Jones connected on four of seven with a game-high 17 points. It was also illustrated against Gonzaga when Dusty Stromer came off the bench for a short stint and got two quick makes from deep on three attempts. At 6’6 and his positioning on the floor, Hadley fits this archetype and should be able to cause the occasional mismatch for the Cats.
Louisville vs Kentucky same-game parlay
J'Vonne Hadley Over 0.5 threes
Otega Oweh Over 15.5 points
I paired Otega Oweh to go Over 15.5 points with my best bet for this same-game parlay.
Though we don’t have the data to back it up, any eye test will tell you that Louisville’s rim defense has been shockingly poor since the injury bug hit. Why not take the most rim-focused player on the court to exploit that?
Oweh comes into the game quickly, leading Wildcat players in rim attempts at five per game. Since Louisville has put its rim defensive struggles on film for a few weeks now, you can expect that volume to only go up here, especially if Lamont Butler cannot go.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cash your ML bets quicker with bet365's early win payout
Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game CBB moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your school goes up by 18+ points!
Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365's offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Louisville vs Kentucky odds
Louisville vs Kentucky live odds
Louisville vs Kentucky opening odds
- Spread: Louisville +10.5 | Kentucky -10.5
- Moneyline: Louisville +450 | Kentucky -630
- Over/Under: Over 157.5 | Under 157.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Louisville vs Kentucky betting trend to know
Louisville has hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 33 games (+5.75 Units / 16% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Louisville vs. Kentucky.
How to watch Louisville vs Kentucky
| Location: | Rupp Arena, Lexington, KY |
| Date: | Saturday, 12-14-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 5:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Louisville vs Kentucky key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
