The Duke Blue Devils welcome the George Mason Patriots to Cameron Indoor Stadium tonight at 7 p.m. ET on ACC Network.
The Blue Devils are 19.5-point favorites but my George Mason vs Duke predictions don't expect a big night from star forward Cooper Flagg.
Here are my best free college basketball picks for this Tuesday, December 16 clash.
George Mason vs Duke prediction
My best bet
Cooper Flagg Under 15.5 points (-105 at bet365)
My analysis
Duke Blue Devils forward Cooper Flagg leads the school in points (15.9), rebounds (9.0), assists (3.6), and blocks (1.4) per game. However, the consensus first-overall pick in next year's NBA draft doesn't always assert himself as a scorer.
That's especially the case in games where the Blue Devils are running up the score against mid-major foes, which is what they're expected to do today as 19.5-point chalk. Not only does Flagg get less playing time in those blowout wins but he also sees his usage rate and shot attempts drop off.
In their last game, the Blue Devils clobbered Incarnate Word 72-46 with Flagg scoring just six points on eight field-goal attempts. He also scored fewer than 10 points in lopsided wins against Seattle and Wofford and dropped a modest 13 points versus Army.
Today, Flagg and the Blue Devils host the George Mason Patriots who prefer a slow pace (270th in adjusted tempo per KenPom) and have been defending well. The Patriots are fourth in the country in opponent eFG% (41.8%) and eighth in opponent 2-point percentage (42.3%). Flagg has a subpar 45.9 eFG% so even the shots he does take might not drop.
George Mason vs Duke same-game parlay
Cooper Flagg Under 15.5 points
Under 137.5
Duke -15.5
I don't expect a ton of points from Flagg but I don't see GMU's offense having any success either. The Patriots are 132nd in adjusted offensive efficiency and 330th in turnover rate and will struggle to score on the road against a Duke team that ranks second in the country in adjusted defense.
On offense, the Blue Devils are still figuring out their identity and building chemistry with four freshmen in their rotation. They scored just 12 points on 5-for-18 shooting in the first 12 minutes against Incarnate Word. The Patriots play tough defense and while they won't completely shut down the Blue Devils, they should slow them down enough for the Under to hit.
The line seems a tad too steep at -19.5 but in the Patriots' only game against a ranked opponent, they lost by 19 on the road against Marquette. KenPom is projecting an 18-point win for Duke while Bart Torvik has Duke winning by 16, so I'll shorten the spread and play it in this SGP.
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George Mason vs Duke odds
George Mason vs Duke live odds
George Mason vs Duke opening odds
- Spread: George Mason +19 | Duke -19
- Moneyline: George Mason +1,300 | Duke -2,800
- Over/Under: Over 136.5 | Under 136.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
George Mason vs Duke betting trend to know
The Under is 19-5-1 in Duke's last 25 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for George Mason vs. Duke.
How to watch George Mason vs Duke
| Location: | Cameron Indoor Stadium, Durham, NC |
| Date: | Tuesday, 12-17-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ACCN |
George Mason vs Duke key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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