Without a “true Cinderella” for the Sweet 16, the No. 10 Arkansas Razorbacks will have to do.
However, you’ll need to jam the Razorbacks’ ham hocks into that glass slipper, considering we’re talking about an SEC school with a Hall of Fame coach on the sidelines.
The “Cinderella” debate will be short-lived anyway, as my Arkansas vs. Texas Tech predictions anticipate the Red Raiders to give Calipari's team fits tonight.
Find out more in my March Madness picks for Thursday, March 27
Who will win Arkansas vs Texas Tech?
Oddsmakers give TTU an implied win probability of 71% in the Sweet 16, and my bracket has the Red Raiders rolling into the Elite Eight. Texas Tech wins tonight.
Arkansas vs Texas Tech prediction
My best bet: Texas Tech -5.5 (-110 at bet365)
The Arkansas Razorbacks have punched their ticket to the Sweet 16 thanks to some favorable matchups.
Arkansas was able to outlast a broken Kansas offense in the opener, with that win as much about the Jayhawks giving away the game down the stretch. In the Round of 32, the Hogs' interior defense forced a poor-shooting St. John’s team outside, leaving the Red Storm to shoot 28% from the field.
Texas Tech, however, is not in the habit of handing over wins, and it can make you pay from the perimeter.
The Red Raiders have a tremendous interior presence, anchored by JT Toppin and Darrion Williams. That pop in the paint will draw the ire of the Arkansas defense, which is long and athletic with an emphasis on protecting the rim.
But TTU presents the biggest outside threat the Razorbacks have faced in the tournament. The Red Raiders shoot 37.1% from beyond the arc (31st) and average more than 10 triples a contest on the year (30th). Granted, Texas Tech hasn’t been as sharp from outside in the Big Dance thus far.
It finished 13-for-46 from distance in the win over UNC Wilmington with the Seahawks selling out of shutting down the inside and followed that up with a 2-for-14 performance against Drake — abandoning the outside with a clear advantage in the post.
The Red Raiders will make the Hogs pick their poison with that inside-out attack. It’s why TTU is No. 5 in the country in spacing, according to ShotQualityBets. Texas Tech is patient in the halfcourt, dropping the game's tempo, and will exploit an Arkansas defense that struggles with motion — be it defending cuts or off screens.
If the Red Raiders can continue to be efficient on offense (No. 5 in offensive efficiency), it will have the Razorbacks starting possessions from the inbound and slow down an Arkansas game plan that wants to push the pace.
The Razorbacks' offense isn’t anything special, especially if Arkansas can’t score in transition. It needs to play with tempo and attack the interior, but TTU will be able to get back on defense and does a solid job protecting against points in the paint and limiting second-chance looks.
When forced to play a half-court game, the Razorbacks don’t have the ball movement or shooting touch from outside (8-for-43 from 3-point range in the tournament) to execute.
Calipari’s crew looks like it will have standout Adou Thiero back in the lineup for the first time since February 22. According to Calipari, Thiero, who leads the team with 15.6 points per game, will be limited to 15 minutes or less of floor time.
That said, Texas Tech could also get a boost from a returning star. Chance McMillian, who has missed the last five games after getting hurt in the Big 12 tournament, also has a shot at returning for Thursday. The 6-foot-6 guard averages 14.2 points and is TTU’s most dangerous 3-point shooter (43.4%).
Game models all nod to Texas Tech, with the projected margin ranging from four to as many as 7.5 points. My forecast calls for a seven-point Red Raiders’ victory, especially if McMillian can return.
Arkansas vs Texas Tech same-game parlay (SGP)
Texas Tech -5.5
JT Toppin 10+ rebounds
Elijah Hawkins 10+ points
Texas Tech’s inside-out offense stretches the Arkansas defense and slows down this game, covering the 5.5-point spread.
Toppins crashes the glass for 10 or more boards against a Hogs defense that gave up a lot of offensive rebounds to St. John’s.
Hawkins hits from outside and tops 10 points for the third straight NCAA Tournament game.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Arkansas vs Texas Tech odds
Arkansas vs Texas Tech live odds
Arkansas vs Texas Tech opening odds
- Spread: Arkansas +5.5 (-110) | Texas Tech -5.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Arkansas +205 | Texas Tech -250
- Over/Under: Over 147 (-110) | Under 147 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Arkansas vs Texas Tech betting trend to know
Texas Tech has won outright on the moneyline in 18 of its last 23 games (+13.55 Units/10% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Arkansas vs. Texas Tech.
How to watch Arkansas vs Texas Tech
| Region | West |
| Location | Chase Center, San Francisco, CA |
| Date | Thursday, 3-27-2025 |
| Tip-off | 10:09 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS, truTV |
Arkansas vs Texas Tech key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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